May 19, 2013

CWS Analysis and Pick

No one team meets every criteria heading into Omaha, but Florida and UCLA come closest, each on the verge of meeting all criteria.

With fielding and pitching being the most important aspects of winning in Omaha, we can virtually eliminate three teams from contention: Arizona, Florida State and Kent State.

Arkansas has stellar pitching, but the fielding and batting leave something to be desired and having South Carolina and Florida in the same bracket spells doom for the Hogs.


2012 CWS Preview

That leaves us with 4 teams.

The Gamecocks are the two-time defending national champs and have the best fielding in either bracket, but have struggled some at the plate, with the worst batting average of any team in Omaha. Will their bats remain clutch in Omaha?

Stony Brook looks great on paper and great in Baton Rouge. My question is what happens if they have to come out of the loser’s bracket? Despite playing in a regional and then a super regional the Seawolves still have by far the worst SoS in the field and that means the Cinderella season will end before the final.

That leaves us with a UCLA-Florida final and a tough call. Two weeks ago I said UCLA looked like a weak #2 national seed. I was wrong about that.

Florida has an advantage in the two most important categories and 3 of the 4 on field measures and for that reason Seldom Used Reserve is forecasting Florida as the 2012 CWS Champion.

Thoughts on the Columbia Regional

I’m not high on Clemson’s prospects this coming weekend in Columbia and not just because they play in Columbia and two-time defending champ South Carolina potentially looms.  The fact is the Tigers may never play the Gamecocks in this regional. 

Coastal Carolina has the #2 ERA nationally and Clemson is a mediocre at best at the plate.  The Tigers actually have the highest SoS in the Regional, but also own the lowest team batting average – though none of these four will be mistaken for murderers row.

Thomas Brittle (orangeandwhite.com)

Can the Tigers beat Coastal?  Absolutely.  But here’s guessing all those salivating over a potential South Carolina-Clemson matchup on Saturday should wait and see what the Tigers do on Friday against a Coastal team they’ve already lost to this year.

A couple of things in the Tigers favor are the Chanticleers fielding issues and a weak schedule that may have the Chants pitching a tad overrated.  And remember – this is a Clemson team that gave South Carolina all they wanted in a 3 games series early in the season.

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
South Carolina 40-16 5 31 177 88 44
Clemson 33-26 40 94 193 117 21
Coastal Carolina 41-17 160 2 92 153 161
Manhattan 33-25 119 151 162 178 214


This is the Gamecocks regional to lose, and while Gamecock pitching isn’t three-peat worthy and they lack top end hitting, South Carolina should head to the Supers next week.

 

College Baseball Contenders (through 4/22/12)

Rice shows up as the top contender for the first time this year, and with good reason as they are solid in both pitching and fielding, the two dominant components.  Interestingly enough, the Owls aren’t even atop the Conference USA standings and still face league-leading UCF down the road.

The Gators would be on top, but their ERA is a tad out of range at 24th, but they are outstanding in every other respect.  This team could certainly take home the hardware in Omaha.

South Carolina continues it’s solid fielding, but both the pitching and hitting has tailed a bit. However, given the Gamecocks recent history they can’t be counted out. 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
Rice 30-12 13 14 100 83 33
Florida 31-9 4 24 81 9 9
South Carolina 30-11 5 30 141 89 51
LSU 32-9 8 41 37 63 79

I debated LSUs inclusion here because of their ERA and, to a lesser extent, their SoS, but in the end I felt they deserved to be here for now.  As we mentioned a couple weeks ago the Tigers have huge series left and I’m not willing to count them out yet.

College Baseball Contenders (through 4/8/12)

No team is standing out at this point.  Each of the four below have strong and weak points, though some of the weak points are weaker than others.

South Carolina is solid in fielding and pitching and so-so in batting and slugging.  The Gamecocks strength of schedule, though climbing in SEC play, is not great, which begs the question is the Gamecocks pitching that good or is it helped by their SoS to this point in the season?

Rice looks good in every category except ERA and the thought here is that this team is a legit contender.
 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
South Carolina 23-9 18 18 143 100 60
Rice 23-11 2 32 90 74 16
Florida 25-7 11 44 71 6 4
LSU 25-7 17 35 27 56 70


 
The other two teams played last weekend with LSU taking two of three from Florida and the Gators stock continues to trend downward ever so slightly. 

Depending on your point of view, the Tigers either have an outstanding opportunity to prove themselves or have the most impossible schedule left as they have series scheduled at Kentucky, at Mississippi and at South Carolina left (along with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Alabama at home).

College Baseball Contenders (as of 3/25/12)

Strictly speaking there are no contenders as Florida’s ERA move just a tad too high and South Carolina’s stats took a nosedive (with the exception of their SoS) as the two teams battled last weekend.

 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
Florida 22-2 2 25 50 4 23
South Carolina 17-7 15 19 120 88 93


 
Despite these shortcomings these two continue to look like the teams to beat as we approach the midway point.  Sure there are some other teams with glossy numbers (such as Kentucky and Georgia), but those teams have SoS issues (Kentucky is 171st in SoS and Georgia is 208) that exclude them from the elite group at this point.

Last week I said “Florida was the clear favorite at this point” and that still stands as the Gators took 2 of 3 from the Gamecocks in Columbia, SC.

 

Initial 2012 College Baseball Contenders

If the two teams below look familiar it’s because they were the last two standing last year when the Gamecocks won their second consecutive title.
 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
Florida 19-1 1 19 33 3 46
South Carolina 15-4 14 6 101 80 121


 
Things look a little different in the early part of 2012 as the Gators are 19-1 while South Carolina is coming off a disastrous weekend in Lexington, Kentucky where they were swept by the Wildcats.

Strictly speaking the SoS of 121 for South Carolina eliminates them from title contention, however there is no doubt that number will improve as the Gamecocks move into the heart of SEC play.

Florida is the clear favorite at this point.

Week 13 Picks

A 4-3 week in week 12 means we are clicking along at a 37-36 on the year and 8-4 picks of the week.  Maybe you noticed no pick in the Clemson – South Carolina game.  There’s a reason for that.  My analysis (more on that tomorrow), done without the benefit of the spread, came out exactly the same as the spread, therefore we went with the over/under for the game.

The Georgia – Georgia Tech game is an interesting one to me, as is the Clemson – South Carolina game for obvious reasons – Clemson and Georgia have championship games next week, while their rivals don’t.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
South Carolina (H) Clemson (A) 4 50
Texas A&M (H) Texas (A)
-7.5 53.5
LSU (H) Arkansas (A)
+12 52
Georgia (A) Georgia Tech (H)
+6 54.5
Wisconsin (H) Penn State (A)
-14.5 49
Alabama (A)
Auburn (H)
+21 47
Florida State (A)
Florida (H)
+2.5 45
Virginia Tech (A)
Virginia (H)
+5 67

Pick of the week: Take the Over 52 in the LSU – Arkansas game.

Week 11 Picks

After 10 weeks we sit at 30-30 overall and 7-3 in picks of the week.  Having a hard time understanding Virginia Tech being favored in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Clemson (H) Wake Forest (A) +16.5 60.5
Virginia Tech (A) Georgia Tech (H) +1 49.5
Florida State (H) Miami (A)
+9 50.5
South Carolina (H) Florida (A)
+3.5 39.5
Stanford (H) Oregon (A)
-3.5 66

Pick of the week: Take the Over 49.5 in the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech game.

Week 10 Picks

The Luck of Stanford having to go for two (and making it) moves my overall record to 27-27 on the season, but still rocking 7-2 on picks of the week.  I’m out on a limb this week with the over in the Alabama-LSU game, but you know the old saying – when everyone is going one way (the under), go the other.

Point spread winners are bolded. Entertainment purposes only.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Arkansas (H) South Carolina (A) -5 52.5
Oklahoma St. (H) Kansas State (A) +21 68
Oklahoma (H) Texas A&M +13.5 68.5
Oregon (A) Washington (H) +16.5 74
Alabama (H) LSU (A) +5 42

Pick of the week: Take the Over 42 in the Alabama-LSU game.

Week 5 Picks

I’m noting a trend and it’s not a good one – mediocrity.  I went 3-3 last week to bring my overall record to a pedestrian 15-13 (53.71%), but did hit my pick of the week to move to 3-1 (75.00%) on picks of the week for the year. 

This week we’re taking the Tigers against the spread, but will we pick them to win outright?  You’ll have to come back tomorrow when we post our game analysis and prediction to find out.

Point spread winners bolded. Entertainment purposes only, please don’t bet the mortgage.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Virginia Tech (H) Clemson (A) +7 50
Alabama (A) Florida (H) +3.5 44.5
Texas A&M (N) Arkansas(N) +3 62.5
Wisconsin (H) Nebraska (A) +9 56.5
South Carolina (H) Auburn (A) +10 59.5

Pick of the week: Take the Over 44.5 in  the Alabama vs. Florida game.