May 22, 2013

Updated Final Four and National Championship Contenders

March 21, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Technically there are 7 teams that meet our criteria for making it to the Final Four, with an eighth on the outside looking in.  Connecticut sneaks in here, though I’m not quite sure how (defense in first round is a good guess though).

Final Four Contenders

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Connecticut Big East 28-9 12 27 10
Duke ACC 32-4 4 2 4
Kansas Big 12 34-2 5 9 1
Kentucky SEC 27-8 7 24 7
North Carolina ACC 28-7 39 8 5
Ohio State Big 10 34-2 1 6 2
San Diego State Mountain West 34-2 25 2 3

On the wrong side of the formula as of this post is Brigham Young.  The Cougars have an opportunity to meet criteria in their Thursday meeting with Florida.

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
BYU Mountain West 32-4 8 31 6

The problem is in the Southeast Region. Of the four teams left there, Butler, Wisconsin, BYU and Florida, none meet the criteria though BYU is tantalizingly close and certainly could get there with a solid performance against Florida.

The championship contenders remain the same some slight adjustment in numbers.

Title Contenders

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Duke ACC 32-4 4 2 4
Kansas Big 12 34-2 5 9 1
Ohio State Big 10 34-2 1 6 2
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Final Four and Championship Contenders

March 17, 2011 by Leave a Comment

As of this writing there are 64 teams left in the Big East Invitational.  The question is who is going to the Final Four and who will win it all on April 4.  The table below will answer some of your questions.

I’ll help you narrow it down and you can figure it out from there.  Using our proprietary formula I’ve come up with the following candidates for the Final Four.

Final Four Contenders

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Duke ACC 30-4 5 3 4
Kansas Big 12 32-2 4 12 1
Kansas State Big 12 22-10 50 27 23
Kentucky SEC 25-8 7 22 7
Louisville Big East 25-9 36 5 17
North Carolina ACC 26-7 37 7 6
Ohio State Big 10 32-2 1 10 2
Pittsburgh Big East 27-5 6 21 10
Purdue Big 10 25-7 18 8 12
San Diego State Mountain West 32-2 24 4 3
Syracuse Big East 26-7 17 16 18
Texas Big 12 27-7 19 1 11
West Virginia Big East 20-11 31 29 21

West Virginia and Kansas State are borderline Final Four candidates, and Purdue has dismissed a player after these numbers were finalized.  Can you eliminate them from this list?  Probably, but we’re all about formulas here so they are included.

So, I’ve eliminated 51 teams off the top, leaving us 13 potential Final Four teams.  That’s great and all, but who actually has a chance to actually win the championship?  We adjust our formula a tad and put more emphasis on offensive efficiency.

Title Contenders

 

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Duke ACC 30-4 5 3 4
Kansas Big 12 32-2 4 12 1
Ohio State Big 10 32-2 1 10 2

Where is Pitt? Right on the cusp, but again, we’re all about formulas and this one leaves Pitt just shy of the OE for a national champion. That’s not to say Pitt couldn’t move up with a good first weekend, but as of this writing they aren’t quite there.

So we’ve narrowed it to 3 teams (with Pitt having a chance to be included next week). Mark it down. A #1 seed will win this year’s tournament.

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