May 19, 2013

Gators, LSU best bets in 2012

May 30, 2012 by Leave a Comment

I’ve identified 5 teams that have the chance to win the title in Omaha next month, but one stands out from the rest and is Seldom Used Reserve’s pick as the likely champion headed into the 2012 tournament.

The Florida Gators have been on our weekly radar since we began tracking the 2012 season and have to be odds on favorite to win the title. Fielding, pitching and slugging are all championship level and the batting isn’t that far off the mark. All this was done against the 11th toughest schedule in the nation and all this leads me to proclaim Florida our pick to win in Omaha.

Another SEC team comes in 2nd in our seeds of likely champions. If LSU had a little more pitching they could certainly win it all. The chances are slim that the ERA will move into range and given the fact that only one of the last 10 champions have had a worse ERA than LSUs current number leads me to believe that the Tigers will fall short.

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
Florida 42-18 16 10 118 14 11
LSU 43-16 4 37 43 62 45
Rice 40-17 24 9 104 82 56
Baylor 44-14 31 24 10 25 25
UCLA 42-14 28 39 14 81 1


Rice comes in third in our seeding and while the Owls fielding and batting can be improved, their SoS is out of range as no national champion in the last 10 years has had a SoS higher than 49.

Baylor is our 4th seed and would meet Rice in the Super if they both make it, but the Bears are a tad short on fielding and pitching. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the Waco Regional to see if the Bears can make a move in the fielding department.

Our 5th and final seed is UCLA. I believe this is a weak #2 national seed. Historically known for their pitching, this is a team that is 39th in ERA and 31st in fielding. Neither of those is going to get it done. Certainly, the Bruins can win their Regional and even the Super, but their chances of winning in Omaha with those numbers are not good.


The last 10 National Champions

Year Team Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
2002 Texas 5 2 99 65 9
2003 Rice 2 2 41 103 15
2004 Cal State – Fullerton 17 22 9 56 3
2005 Texas 3 4 80 74 17
2006 Oregon State 8 14 85 95 18
2007 Oregon State 2 11 162 129 25
2008 Fresno State 52 56 125 102 49
2009 LSU 16 9 78 34 33
2010 South Carolina 13 7 173 81 39
2011 South Carolina 35 5 81 57 18

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College Baseball Contenders (through 4/22/12)

April 24, 2012 by Leave a Comment

Rice shows up as the top contender for the first time this year, and with good reason as they are solid in both pitching and fielding, the two dominant components.  Interestingly enough, the Owls aren’t even atop the Conference USA standings and still face league-leading UCF down the road.

The Gators would be on top, but their ERA is a tad out of range at 24th, but they are outstanding in every other respect.  This team could certainly take home the hardware in Omaha.

South Carolina continues it’s solid fielding, but both the pitching and hitting has tailed a bit. However, given the Gamecocks recent history they can’t be counted out. 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
Rice 30-12 13 14 100 83 33
Florida 31-9 4 24 81 9 9
South Carolina 30-11 5 30 141 89 51
LSU 32-9 8 41 37 63 79

I debated LSUs inclusion here because of their ERA and, to a lesser extent, their SoS, but in the end I felt they deserved to be here for now.  As we mentioned a couple weeks ago the Tigers have huge series left and I’m not willing to count them out yet.

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College Baseball Contenders (through 4/8/12)

April 11, 2012 by Leave a Comment

No team is standing out at this point.  Each of the four below have strong and weak points, though some of the weak points are weaker than others.

South Carolina is solid in fielding and pitching and so-so in batting and slugging.  The Gamecocks strength of schedule, though climbing in SEC play, is not great, which begs the question is the Gamecocks pitching that good or is it helped by their SoS to this point in the season?

Rice looks good in every category except ERA and the thought here is that this team is a legit contender.
 

Team Record Fielding ERA Batting Slugging SoS
South Carolina 23-9 18 18 143 100 60
Rice 23-11 2 32 90 74 16
Florida 25-7 11 44 71 6 4
LSU 25-7 17 35 27 56 70


 
The other two teams played last weekend with LSU taking two of three from Florida and the Gators stock continues to trend downward ever so slightly. 

Depending on your point of view, the Tigers either have an outstanding opportunity to prove themselves or have the most impossible schedule left as they have series scheduled at Kentucky, at Mississippi and at South Carolina left (along with Georgia, Vanderbilt and Alabama at home).

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Do Yards Matter?

December 27, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Over the last few years I’ve noticed multiple web sites, blogs, and other publications state their case as to why total yards gained don’t matter. The usual argument goes something like this: “It doesn’t matter how you score, as long as you score. A team doesn’t get any yards for scoring on defense or special teams, so yards aren’t important – scoring is”.

While that statement is true, at least to a point, the real answer is of course yards matter. Gaining yards does not guarantee points, but it sure increases the odds of scoring. Sure teams score in all kinds of ways every year, some of them not involving offense. But the vast majority of the time touchdowns are scored by offenses and the way offenses score is by gaining yards. It may be a few yards or it may be a lot of yards, but the offense has to gain yards in the large majority of cases for the team to score.

Just because it’s not a one-to-one relationship or a relationship that can be easily defined (i.e. 400 yards = 30 points, for example), doesn’t mean that yards aren’t important.

If you need further evidence that yards matter, the chart below will help clarify the relationship between yards gained (total offense) and scoring. 8 of the top 11 scoring teams are in the top 10 in total offense (total yards gained) and 9 of the top 10 in total offense are in the top 13 in scoring. That’s not a coincidence.

Team Total Offense Scoring Offense
Houston 1 1
Baylor 2 6
Oklahoma State 3 2
Oklahoma 4 10
Nevada 5 31
Oregon 6 3
Texas A&M 7 11
Toledo 8 8
Boise State 9 7
Northern Illinois 10 13

 

There are absolutely outliers and exceptions to this rule, but that doesn’t mean that yards don’t matter statistically speaking. Naysayers can point to a game or perhaps even a team, such as LSU, where yards really don’t matter, but those are few and far in between.

Still not convinced? Even with all of their defense and Tyrann Mathieu seemingly returning a fumble or punt every week LSU still scored 86% of their touchdowns on offense and all of those involved gaining some number of yards. For all of the talk about Oklahoma State’s “opportunistic” defense, 93% of their touchdowns were scored on offense. 94% of Clemson’s touchdowns were scored on offense.

The point is that in the vast majority of cases (90%+) touchdowns are scored by the offense and the only way for an offense to score a touchdown is to gain yards.

Yes, yards matter.

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Week 14 Picks

December 1, 2011 by Leave a Comment

By now you’ve come to realize that picking games isn’t my strong suit.  A 2-6 record last week leaves me at 39-42 on the season (48.1%) and 9-4 in picks of the week (69.2%).  Yet, I continue which means I am probably looking to the end of the regular season and championship games more than Randy Edsall in the fourth quarter last week.

The detail of the Clemson-Virginia Tech game is coming tomorrow, but suffice it to say I think the Tigers rebound and cover.  Will they win?  Tune in tomorrow to find out.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Virginia Tech (N) Clemson (N) +7 52.5
LSU (N) Georgia (N) +13.5 46
Oklahoma State (H) Oklahoma (A) -3 78
Baylor (H) Texas (A) -2.5 54.5
Wisconsin (N) Michigan State  -9.5 55

Pick of the week: Take the Over 46 in the LSU - Georgia game.

Filed Under: Clemson Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Week 13 Picks

November 24, 2011 by Leave a Comment

A 4-3 week in week 12 means we are clicking along at a 37-36 on the year and 8-4 picks of the week.  Maybe you noticed no pick in the Clemson – South Carolina game.  There’s a reason for that.  My analysis (more on that tomorrow), done without the benefit of the spread, came out exactly the same as the spread, therefore we went with the over/under for the game.

The Georgia – Georgia Tech game is an interesting one to me, as is the Clemson – South Carolina game for obvious reasons – Clemson and Georgia have championship games next week, while their rivals don’t.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
South Carolina (H) Clemson (A) 4 50
Texas A&M (H) Texas (A)
 -7.5 53.5
LSU (H) Arkansas (A)
 +12 52
Georgia (A) Georgia Tech (H)
 +6 54.5
Wisconsin (H) Penn State (A)
 -14.5 49
Alabama (A)
 Auburn (H)
 +21 47
Florida State (A)
 Florida (H)
 +2.5 45
Virginia Tech (A)
 Virginia (H)
 +5 67

Pick of the week: Take the Over 52 in the LSU – Arkansas game.

Filed Under: Clemson Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Week 10 Picks

November 3, 2011 by Leave a Comment

The Luck of Stanford having to go for two (and making it) moves my overall record to 27-27 on the season, but still rocking 7-2 on picks of the week.  I’m out on a limb this week with the over in the Alabama-LSU game, but you know the old saying – when everyone is going one way (the under), go the other.

Point spread winners are bolded. Entertainment purposes only.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Arkansas (H) South Carolina (A) -5 52.5
Oklahoma St. (H) Kansas State (A) +21 68
Oklahoma (H) Texas A&M +13.5 68.5
Oregon (A) Washington (H) +16.5 74
Alabama (H) LSU (A) +5 42

Pick of the week: Take the Over 42 in the Alabama-LSU game.

Filed Under: Clemson Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Week 4 Picks

September 22, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Not a great week, but thats what I get for picking against the Tigers.  Lets hope this weeks turns out similarly on both accounts.  I’ll gladly sacrifice my record for another Tiger win.

We went a horrible 1-6 in week 3, losing our pick of the week for the first time in the process.. That puts our season mark at 12-10 (54.55%) and 2-1 (66.67%) on picks of the week.

Here are our picks for week 4.

Point spread winners bolded. Entertainment purposes only, please don’t bet the mortgage.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Clemson (H) Florida State (A) +2   50.5 
Alabama (H) Arkansas (A) +12.5   50.5 
South Carolina (H) Vanderbilt (A) -16   52.5 
Texas A&M (H) Oklahoma State (A) +4   69 
LSU (A)  West Virginia (H) +6  50

Pick of the week: Take the Over 50.5 in Arkansas vs. Alabama

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Week 3 Picks

September 15, 2011 by 1 Comment

Yes, I’m picking Auburn. While I’ve heard at least one pundit say that all the intangibles were in Clemson’s favor, I’m wondering what he’s smoking. Nothing says intangible like a 17 game winning streak and two last-minute victories to start the season. Can Clemson win? Yes, and more on that tomorrow in our game analysis, but suffice it to say that I need to see it before I start betting it.

 

 

We went an outstanding 7-1 in week 2, including hitting our pick of the week, the over in the Auburn/Mississippi State game. That puts our season mark at 11-4 and 2-0 in our picks of the week.

Here are our picks for week 3.

Point spread winners bolded. Entertainment purposes only, please don’t bet the mortgage.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
LSU (A) Mississippi State (H) +3.5 49.5
Florida(H) Tennessee (A) +9.5 50.5
South Carolina (H) Navy (A) +17 56
Oklahoma(A) Florida State (H) +3.5 55
Clemson (H) Auburn (A) +3.5 60

Pick of the week: Take the over 56 in South Carolina vs. Navy.

Filed Under: Clemson Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , ,

Week 1 Picks

September 1, 2011 by Leave a Comment
mgm_sports_book

You’ll have to take our word for it, but we saw Oregon as a value pick even before the shenanigans at LSU came to light.  I took the Miami/Maryland game off the board because of the wide variety of differences in point spreads and even which team was favored at press time. 

Clemson is borderline here and that game could go either way spread-wise in our analysis, but it wouldn’t be football season without getting burned by the Tigers so week 1 is as good as any to get that out of the way. 

I’ve heard many pundits say that TCU should watch out for Baylor and while it’s true that Baylor is at home and TCU is breaking in a new quarterback, my money (not literally) is on TCU until proven otherwise.

The tough part about doing something like this is that it seems like you have to keep up with the police blotter more than the injury report. I’m keeping the Tulsa/Oklahoma game here despite the arrest of one of Tulsa’s better offensive weapons because, well this is just for fun. In real life I would run from it. Fast.

 

Point spread winners bolded.  Entertainment purposes only, please don’t bet the mortgage.

Favorite Dog Spread O/U
Clemson (H) Troy (A)   -16 55
TCU (A) Baylor (H)  -4.5 56
Oklahoma (H) Tulsa (A)  +25 64.5
South Carolina (N) East Carolina (N)  +20.5 62
Oregon (N) LSU (N)  -4 55
Boise State (N) Georgia (N)  -3.5 51

Pick of the week:  Take the over 51 in Georgia and Boise State.

 

Filed Under: Clemson Football, College Football Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,
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