May 19, 2013

Who catches the passes and what do they do with them?

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Today we take a look at the distribution of Tajh Boyd’s passes (and a few from Cole Stoudt and one from Sammy Watkins and Andre Ellington) both in terms of targets by position and receptions by position (we’ll focus in on the WRs later below).

Note:  The “Other” category includes interceptions, balls thrown away and one caught by a lineman.

While 64.56% of the passes targeted the wide receivers, the wide receivers accounted for 71.08% of the receptions.  What’s interesting to me is the relatively low percentage of passes to Dewayne Allen that are completed (61.29%, not shown here).  The same goes for the running backs (48.39%, also not shown here).  You would think that passes to these positions means shorter passes and therefore higher completion percentages.

The numbers below on the wide receivers shouldn’t be that surprising to any Clemson fan except perhaps the closeness in the percentage of explosive plays between Sammy Watkins, Nuke Hopkins and Jaron Brown.  Brown is often left out of the conversation, but has proven to be a reliable and explosive third wide receiver.

The other thing to note is that while Martavis Bryant only has 6 catches every one of them has been for a first down and every one has been explosive.

Note:  An explosive play is defined as a reception of 16 or more yards.

Position Outlook: Clemson Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins

Expect to hear the “Nuke!” chant for three more years in Death Valley. Hopkins rolled up 52 catches for 637 yards for a 12.3 yard per catch average and scored 4 touchdowns as a true freshman in 2010. If there was a bright spot at wide receiver for Clemson in 2010 it was Hopkins. Imagine what will happen when teams can’t focus solely on Hopkins with the arrival of the three big freshmen recruits this summer. What can Hopkins to for an encore? More catches? More yards? More touchdowns? All of the above?

The Tigers faced a decided dearth of talent at wide receiver last year and Hopkins benefited from that. Will the same be true this year with the arrival of Sammy Watkins, Charone Peake and Martavis Bryant, not to mention the return of Jaron Brown, Marquan Jones and Bryce McNeal? What was seemingly a position short on depth and talent all of a sudden appears deep and talented. Watkins is a 5 star recruit and both Peake and Bryant are 4 star recruits. It remains to be seen if all 3 are on campus in August, but if they are more could hard to come by. And don’t downplay the fact that there will be a new quarterback under center this year. Say what you will about Kyle Parker in 2010, but he was the one that threw the majority of Hopkins’ 52 catches.

Clemson fans are expecting: More.

Clemson fans will get: Depends on your definition of “more”. 4 receptions a game may be difficult to come by, but unlike the 3 heralded recruits we know Hopkins can get open and catch the ball at this level. The question is will Boyd be able to get it to him?
The season will be a success if: Hopkins catches 50 passes and becomes more of a long ball threat (average around 14 yards a catch) and the Tigers win 8 or more games.

Seldom Used April Guestimation: 50 receptions, 675 yards and 5 touchdowns

 

Jaron Brown

A personal favorite, Brown had 32 catches 405 yards, 3 touchdowns and a better per catch average than Hopkins (thanks to the 74 yard bomb vs. North Carolina). Brown has the talent to be a high level factor for the Tigers but has been erratic. Brown has been a big play threat, but where does he fit in with the incoming talent?

Clemson fans are expecting: More consistency.

Clemson fans will get: More consistency with game breaking capability. Brown has improved in each of his first two years and there’s no reason to believe that he won’t be improved in the fall.

The season will be a success if: Brown catches 35 passes, becomes consistent and is a long ball threat (average around 14 yards a catch).

Seldom Used April Guestimation: 37 receptions, 525 yards and 3 touchdowns.

 

Marquan Jones

An enigma wrapped in a riddle Jones had 21 catches and average 8.8 yards per catch. How does a wide receiver average 8.8 yards per catch? Sure Clemson is Screen Pass U but you still occasionally need to break one of those for a longer gain. Of his 21 receptions only 2 were 16 yards or more, but 10 were effective in moving the Tigers closer to a score or first down. This tells me he was used in the short passing game almost exclusively.

I think Jones struggles for playing time this year with the wealth of talent coming in and the return of Brown and Hopkins.

Clemson fans are expecting: Very little.

Clemson fans will get: Call it a hunch, but Jones will provide more than expected.

The season will be a success if: Jones is used more downfield and catches 25 passes and becomes consistent.

Seldom Used April Guestimation: 22 receptions, 225 yards and 1 touchdown.

 

Bryce McNeal

A second Clemson wide receiver that averaged less than 10 yards per catch is why Tiger fans started break dancing when Morris announced intentions to “take shots down field”. McNeal recorded 19 receptions for 187 yards as a redshirt freshman and appeared to struggle to get open most of the season. The spring game revealed that gaining separation was still an issue and to top it off the smallish McNeal also had little luck in his opportunities to run the ball last fall.

With the incoming talent something has to give and my guess is McNeal will suffer a loss of playing time. McNeal’s lack of development has disappointed me more than any other wide receiver. Who is at fault for that is debatable, but could be determined by his production this year. We are talking about a national top 75 player when he was recruited. If Hopkins and Brown continue to improve and the three freshmen develop into quality D-1 college receivers at some point you need to look at McNeal being over rated coming out and/or put some of the lack of development on him.

Clemson fans are expecting: McNeal to have reduced playing time.

Clemson fans will get: McNeal to have reduced playing time.

The season will be a success if: McNeal becomes a serviceable backup, continues to develop and is able to occasionally gain separation.

Seldom Used April Guestimation: 15 receptions, 150 yards.

 

Joe Craig

Admittedly I haven’t seen a ton of film, but haven’t been impressed with what I’ve seen whether Craig was running or receiving. Craig will struggle to find playing time and may be relegated to the occasional series or play and will be used on reverses and screens.

Clemson fans are expecting: Speed and long ball threat.

Clemson fans will get: Not much.

The season will be a success if: Craig contributes.

Seldom Used April Guestimation: 5 receptions, 60 yards, 10 rushes 55 yards.

 

Sammy Watkins/Charone Peake/Martavis Bryant

As I always mention there is a huge danger in projecting production when a player hasn’t seen the field versus D-1 talent. See Bryce McNeal. However, these 3 are bigger than McNeal and I can’t imagine them having the same issue with separation. That said, separation means little if you don’t catch the ball.

The Tigers have Hopkins, Brown and Jones as their first options and McNeal and Craig make 5. Five star players don’t come to Clemson to redshirt, so Watkins is playing. Bryant is a prep school player so theoretically he won’t redshirt either. Will Peake redshirt or does Clemson need 8 wide receivers? Am I crazy? Maybe, but remember McNeal was the 10th rated wide receiver coming out of high school and he wasn’t prepared to play. Peake was ranked 83rd overall and McNeal 75th. Peake is bigger, but his strength has been questioned by some scouts.

While it would be nice to create a year of separation by redshirting one of these 3, that’s going to be a tough sell with the overall lack of talent at the position we saw in 2010.

Clemson fans are expecting: A whole bunch.

Clemson fans will get: Less than they expect, but still a significant contribution and a bright future.

The season will be a success if: All three contribute and develop at their own pace and aren’t expected to be “the man” from game 1. Better yet, have Bryant or Peake redshirt.

Seldom Used April Guestimation: Watkins, 30 catches, 330 yards. Bryant, redshirt or 20 catches, 220 yards, Peake redshirt or 20 catches, 225 yards.