Please disregard this analysis.  It isn’t often I say that, but the Georgia Tech offense is so unusual that typical analysis doesn’t apply.

It’s easy to say that this Yellow Jacket team racked up lots of points and big yards against a weak schedule and has come back to earth against ACC competition.  That appears to be a valid point as Tech’s 25.8 points per game against ACC competition pales in comparison to their 59.3 points per game in non-conference.  Add in the fact that the defense of the 5 ACC teams the Jackets have played range anywhere from middling to terrible is another clue.

But Tech remains dangerous, nonetheless.

There is something in the numbers and in my head that suggest this game could be an issue for Clemson.  Call me pessimistic.  Tell me I’m worried about the fall from grace that everyone is waiting for.  Call me crazy.

I spent a lot of time on this week’s podcast and also some time in writing defending the Clemson defense this week.  Simply looking at a box score doesn’t tell you how well the Clemson defense played last week.  Sure they gave up two long TD passes, but that was about it until the starters were resting comfortably on the sidelines and the kickoff team decided to become spectators.

Meantime the Tech defense is better than one might think, giving up only 341 yards and 24.13 points per game.  Again you can question the competition (I do), but they are called averages for a reason.  The Jackets strength of schedule is only 19 places behind Clemson, so comparing the two is not out of the question.

Clemson has played two road games and had issues in both, despite winning.  The offense sputtered (I know, I know, the weather) in Blacksburg and then fell way behind in College Park to a bad Maryland team before rallying.

For all the talk about Georgia Tech going for it on fourth down the Jackets have only 12 fourth down attempts in 8 games (1.5 attempts per game).  Clemson’s tried 8.  It hasn’t been that big of a difference.

While the numbers tell me one story, my head tells me another.  The numbers say Georgia Tech will cover the 3 ½ point spread and perhaps actually win the game.  My head tells me Clemson is much better than this Yellow Jacket team. 

The question is, is this the week of the clunker for Clemson or did the Tigers escape the clunker at Maryland?  Clemson has covered the spread against every FBS team this year and that streak has to end sometime.  Will it be this week?  Next week?  Next year?  Who knows.

On the field, questions have abounded about the Georgia Tech offensive line and the decisions made by quarterback Tevin Washington.

Has the ACC caught up with the Tech offense?  Maybe in part, but my guess is that Paul Johnson has some tricks up his sleeve this week, not to mention playing at home and being desperate as a loss would be Tech’s third in the ACC.

Teams, even good ones, don’t go undefeated for a reason.  It’s hard.  Not because the other team is better necessarily, but because it’s hard to play well every week (hello,Oklahoma!) and sometimes the other team plays out of their mind. 

I can see a scenario where Clemson blows Georgia Tech out.  I can see a scenario where Tech wins.  Many different scenarios have played out in my mind this week.  Which one plays out on Saturday?  Your guess is as good as mine. 

Just know this:  The model I use to assist in predicting games is least reliable with teams that are one-dimensional (either passing or running) than more balanced teams and for this reason I have very little confidence in this prediction.

Georgia Tech 41 Clemson 36