I’ve spent about 10 minutes on college basketball this year, so I am no expert. But I still feel the need, as strange as that sounds, to make my picks this week.
And here they are:
I see the Final Four as Florida, Indiana, Duke and Ohio State, with Florida and Ohio State reaching the final and Florida winning it all.
My biggest upset? I don’t believe in Gonzaga and think Pittsburgh takes them down in the second round.
NCAA2013 –
These four teams appear to have a solid shot in March. All of these were in our first iteration of contenders back on January 15th and remain so 3 weeks later.
Despite getting plastered by Arkansas the Gators remain the best, most efficient team in the land. One game a champion does not make.
CBB02062013 –
Indiana made huge strides in their SoS (as expected) once Big 10 play got into full swing, but still have a ways to go.
Minnesota and Duke are on outside looking in (but close) on offense efficiency.
Here are the half-dozen teams worth keeping an eye on in our first look at college basketball in 2012-2013 season.
Though we are about at the mid-way point of the college basketball season it’ still very early in the conference season for most teams, so the numbers below will change vastly in the next several weeks.
With that said, Florida is currently the team that meets all criteria of a national champ. The others have flaws, but of course are not excluded at this point.
One would not expect Minnesota’s SoS to remain in the 200s, for example – and that’s what is keeping the Gophers from full contender status.
The other four have offensive efficiency issues which most likely won’t become readily apparent until later in the season and/or later in the NCAA tourney, when defensive minded teams tend to dominate.
Am I the only one who’s heard the pundits say there are no dominant teams in college basketball this year? One talking head starts the chant as soon as the last undefeated team tastes defeat. It spreads like wild-fire through the media when a top team is upset as if Duke losing to Florida State, or Ohio State losing to Purdue means they aren’t dominant. Being dominant does not require being undefeated. Add to that the merry-go-round that seemed to be happening at #1 for a couple of weeks this year and you have a recipe for hyperbole.
One recent team that is widely considered dominant was the 2009 North Carolina juggernaut that went 34-4 and defeated Michigan State in the title game. The talent on that team was second to none. But they lost 4 games.
I threw in last years Duke Championship team for comparison’s sake and was surprised to find out that they stacked up favorably with both the 2009 North Carolina team and this year’s Ohio State team.
Looking at the chart below its easy to see that Ohio State is in fact a dominant team, so the question is why are they not being given credit for it? Losses to Wisconsin (25-8) and Purdue (26-8) perhaps? Both made the tourney and Wisconsin is in the Sweet 16.
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
| 2009 North Carolina | ACC | 34-4 | 1 | 16 | 3 |
| 2010 Duke | ACC | 35-5 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 2011 Ohio State | Big 10 | 34-2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
Technically there are 7 teams that meet our criteria for making it to the Final Four, with an eighth on the outside looking in. Connecticut sneaks in here, though I’m not quite sure how (defense in first round is a good guess though).
Final Four Contenders
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
| Connecticut | Big East | 28-9 | 12 | 27 | 10 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 34-2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 27-8 | 7 | 24 | 7 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 28-7 | 39 | 8 | 5 |
On the wrong side of the formula as of this post is Brigham Young. The Cougars have an opportunity to meet criteria in their Thursday meeting with Florida.
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
The problem is in the Southeast Region. Of the four teams left there, Butler, Wisconsin, BYU and Florida, none meet the criteria though BYU is tantalizingly close and certainly could get there with a solid performance against Florida.
The championship contenders remain the same some slight adjustment in numbers.
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 34-2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Ohio State | Big 10 | 34-2 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
As of this writing there are 64 teams left in the Big East Invitational. The question is who is going to the Final Four and who will win it all on April 4. The table below will answer some of your questions.
I’ll help you narrow it down and you can figure it out from there. Using our proprietary formula I’ve come up with the following candidates for the Final Four.
Final Four Contenders
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
| Duke | ACC | 30-4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 32-2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Kentucky | SEC | 25-8 | 7 | 22 | 7 |
| North Carolina | ACC | 26-7 | 37 | 7 | 6 |
| Ohio State | Big 10 | 32-2 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| San Diego State | Mountain West | 32-2 | 24 | 4 | 3 |
West Virginia and Kansas State are borderline Final Four candidates, and Purdue has dismissed a player after these numbers were finalized. Can you eliminate them from this list? Probably, but we’re all about formulas here so they are included.
So, I’ve eliminated 51 teams off the top, leaving us 13 potential Final Four teams. That’s great and all, but who actually has a chance to actually win the championship? We adjust our formula a tad and put more emphasis on offensive efficiency.
| Team | Conference | W-L | Off Efficiency | Def Efficiency | RPI |
| Duke | ACC | 30-4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Kansas | Big 12 | 32-2 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| Ohio State | Big 10 | 32-2 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
Where is Pitt? Right on the cusp, but again, we’re all about formulas and this one leaves Pitt just shy of the OE for a national champion. That’s not to say Pitt couldn’t move up with a good first weekend, but as of this writing they aren’t quite there.
So we’ve narrowed it to 3 teams (with Pitt having a chance to be included next week). Mark it down. A #1 seed will win this year’s tournament.
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