What would you say if I told you that Sammy Watkins is Clemson’s most effective runner and 4^th most effective receiver?

Nuts, I know.  There are, of course, limitations to the analysis below and there are many different ways to measure effectiveness, but one way to measure effectiveness is the successful vs. unsuccessful play results you see below.  I borrowed this concept from Chase Stuart of smartfootball.com.

The concept is straightforward, successful plays are measured thusly:

A successful rushing play:

1. All carries count, except as noted in # 2 below.
2. All instances of 3rd or 4th down carries where the player needed to gain more than 5 yards for a first down have been removed. As Stuart points out in his post it doesn’t feel right blaming the runner for not gaining 7 yards on 3rd and 7, so simply eliminate all of these failures from the data. However, on the rare occasions where a running back did convert for the first down, those plays were not removed. This does not happen often (only happened 14 times this season).
3. For all 3rd or 4th downs, a success is defined as gaining the first down (and/or touchdown). A failure is every rush that does not gain a first down.
4. On all downs, a first down (which includes a touchdown) is a success.
5. On all second downs, a success is achieved when the player gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-10 runs are failures unless they pick up 5 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the running back must gain at least 4 yards. A rush for one yard on and-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
6. On first down, a running back is credited with a successful play if he gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the running back is given credit. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.

A successful passing play:

1. All pass attempts count.
2. Sacks are counted as unsuccessful pass plays.
3. For all 3rd or 4th downs, a success is defined as gaining the first down (and/or touchdown). A failure is every pass that does not gain a first down, whether completed or not.
4. On all downs, a first down (which includes a touchdown) is a success.
5. On all second downs, a success is achieved when the play gains at least 50% of the yards needed for the first down. This means that 2nd-and-10 passes are failures unless they pick up 5 yards; on 2nd-and-7, the pass must gain at least 4 yards. A pass for one yard on and-and-3 is a failure, and so on.
6. On first down, a successful play is credited if it gains at least 40% of the yards needed; therefore, four yards are required on 1st-and-10 before the pass is successful. On 1st and goal from the 5, a two-yard gain would be considered a success.

Successful Plays 1.3 –

I’m more surprised at Ellington’s place in the rushing stats than I am of Watkins’ and I had no idea that D.J. Howard was so effective last year.

Humphries will likely get more opportunities this season, especially in the first two games, so it’ll be interesting to see how his numbers pan out in 2012.

The glaring elephant in the room is the production, or lack thereof, of the running backs in the passing game.  Between Ellington and Howard there were 43 pass plays, with only 7 (16.3%) being successful.  There simply has to be more production from this unit if the offense is going to continue to grow in 2012.