August 27, 2014

Episode 21: Brandon Rink talks Georgia

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Brandon Rink of orangeandwhite.com joins me to discuss Zac Brooks injury, Shaq Anthony transfer, offensive line depth, cornerback depth chart and Georgia while giving Tiger fans everywhere a prediction on Saturday’s game.

You can also download current and previous episodes and subscribe to the Podcast via iTunes by clicking here.

Thanks to Brandon for participating and Clemson graduate Adam Eargle for the podcast artwork and all SUR graphics.  Need a graphic artist? Check out some of Adam’s work here.

Explosives – Back and Gone

Mike Williams

Zac Brooks GeorgiaOne of the story lines from spring and into the opening of fall camp is the notion that Clemson’s 2014 offense won’t be as explosive as the previous 3 versions under Chad Morris.  The Tigers lost 72.7% of their explosive rushes, 59.4% of explosive receptions and 89.6% of explosive passes from 2013.

Where do those explosives come from? I’m not sure and a talent like Sammy Watkins doesn’t come along every day, but we would be wise to remember that in some regards the Morris offense made Sammy and Tajh just as much as they made the Morris offense.

Will the explosiveness be at the same level as last year? This is something I’ll be tracking as the year progresses and we should have a decent idea right out of the gate as the Tigers first two opponents this year are the same as last.

 

2013 Explosive Rushing Plays2013 Explosive Receptions2013 Explosive Passes by QB

That said, the returning players above will be given additional opportunities and naturally this will lead to an increase in their explosive output.  The freshman class is talented, if inexperienced, just like Watkins and Bryant were in 2011.

I’m not sure if the Tigers reach the 2013 level of explosiveness, but I’m confident Morris will mold the unit into one of the top offenses in college football when all is said and done.

Podcast: Fall Camp Primer 1 – Brandon Rink of OrangeandWhite.com talks Offense

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Fall camp starts in just over a week and Brandon Rink (@brink_aim) joins me to talk offense including: When and how often Deshaun Watson plays, offensive line depth, the most underappreciated running back on the roster, which receivers he believes will break out and much more in part 1 of our preseason series.

You can also download and subscribe to the Podcast via iTunes by clicking here.

Thanks to Brandon for participating and Clemson graduate Adam Eargle for the podcast artwork and all SUR graphics.  Need a graphic artist? Check out some of Adam’s work here.

Returning Receiver Detail

Mike Williams

Below are the 2013 numbers for the returning receivers for Clemson.  

Though 20 of his targets were at or behind the line of scrimmage, it’s interesting to note that Germone Hopper was targeted more than Mike Williams.

Returning Receiver Detail

Inside The Numbers: D.J. Howard and Zac Brooks

D.J. Howard

D.J. HowardYou just thought there were question marks surrounding the running back position at Clemson last year.  This year there really is.

I was fairly confident that Rod McDowell would have the type of year he had in 2014 – my eyes and the data said he would be fine. Not C.J. Spiller-like, but a plus back and that’s just what McDowell was.  Now, McDowell’s graduation leaves a murky situation behind as we look at the first two of 7 backs vying for carries.

How long does D.J. Howard remain at the top of the depth chart?  Your guess is as good as mine, but that’s where he currently resides.  Howard had a solid freshman year, averaging over 5 yards a carry, but has fought injuries the last two seasons.

Is it me or does Howard seem to play slower than the 4.5 speed listed out of high school and get caught up in the wash a fair amount to this point in his career?  Can Howard overcome that with enough carries and a bigger sample size and will he end the season as the Tigers #1 running back?

I foresee a log jam in which no one completely owns the position, at least for the first half of the season.

Breakout Season: 160 carries, 699 yards, 6 TDs

Bust: 40 carries, 175 yards, 1 TD

2014 Outlook: 125 carries, 546 yards, 3 TDs

Zac Brooks GeorgiaZac Brooks has had a somewhat star-crossed two seasons at Clemson.  In 2012, a year that the majority thought he would benefit from a redshirt, Brooks was used in mop up duty and a year of eligibility was used on 26 garbage time carries.

Last season Brooks was scheduled to be an integral part of the offense and had between 5 and 7 carries in all but Georgia (3) and Syracuse (9) through 8 games before being injured and only getting 1 more carry for the season as he finished with 246 yards on 48 carries.

Brooks has shown flashes as his 4.9 career average (74 carries) attests, but I don’t see him as a featured back and have questions about his ability to stay healthy. Additionally, a good chunk of Brooks’ carries were in non-competitive situations, making him an unknown despite entering his junior season.

Similar to last season, I believe this is a crucial year in the evolution of Zac Brooks at Clemson considering the stable of running backs vying for playing time.  It may be 2014 or never for Zac Brooks at Clemson.

Breakout Season: 125 carries, 616 yards, 4TDs

Bust: 40 carries, 197 yards, 1 TD

2014 Outlook: 75 carries, 370 yards, 3 TDs

Negative Rushes Impact Running Game

CJDAVIDSON

Earlier in the week I posted numbers that showed that Rod McDowell has performed admirably in comparison to Andre Ellington in 2012. One area that I pointed out that McDowell was not as successful as Ellington is the percentage of negative rushes (for that analysis I used “0 or negative yardage”, for this one I am using only negative rushes).

Because he has so many carries than the other backs McDowell is bound to have more negative plays, which is why we use the % instead. (Tajh Boyd’s numbers below excludes sacks).

Negative Rushes

What that number, 13.0% means is that McDowell loses yardage on about one of every 7.7 carries.

One could argue that Davidson’s numbers are so low because he is facing worn down or second and third team defenses when he plays. I get that (especially the worn down part), but also realize that Davidson typically plays with second and third team linemen blocking for him.

Put into context along side the numbers posted Monday and the picture of McDowell as a runner becomes a little clearer. He’s a big play back that’s hit or miss. He may gain 20 yards or he may lose 3 and consistency has not been part of his game to this point.

It may also help explain why McDowell has only 5 carries on third downs all season.

Successful and Explosive Play Analysis – Running Backs

Rod McDowell

Last week I posted that Zac Brooks led the running backs in successful play percentage and this week I’ve added explosive plays to the mix.

As I mentioned then, there is some benefit to Brooks coming in as a change of pace to Rod McDowell and having limited touches.

What is becoming clearer is that both Brooks and McDowell have something to offer, albeit with different skill sets.

Most Clemson fans were aware that there would be a running back by committee this season, but I also believe most, me included, expected McDowell to lead the charge. McDowell had an outstanding game against Georgia and has been banged up since.

It’ll be interesting to see how the backs are used against Boston College tomorrow and especially against the Seminoles next week.

Successful-Explosives

Brooks Making Most of Limited Opportunities

Zac Brooks

The concept of “Successful Plays” is not original to this web site. If I recall correctly, I first saw the concept on smartfootball.com in a comparison of NFL running backs.

The metric has some value, because as non-stat geeks know, not all 4 yard gains are the same. Gaining 4 yards on 3rd and 5 means a punt is likely coming, while gaining four yards on 3rd and 3 moves the chains.

This concept is quite simple. Successful plays are defined by the following criteria:

  • 1st Down – Gain 40% of yards to go for a first down, gain a first down or score a touchdown.
  • 2nd Down – Gain 50% of yards to go for a first down, gain a first down or score a touchdown.
  • 3rd Down – Gain a first down or score a touchdown.
  • 4th Down – Gain a first down or score a touchdown.

With that criteria in mind I applied this concept to the main ball carriers for Clemson and the result was a bit surprising to me.

Zac Brooks leads the way at 78.9% success rate. Yes, the sample size is small, but Brooks has gotten it done when called on.

Success 5

Brooks wouldn’t be able to maintain that success rate as the feature back, but the point is that Brooks has been successful when given the opportunity.

This analysis also confirms what we all know – Tajh Boyd is an effective runner.

Rod McDowell’s numbers may look a bit low, but the truth is they are not out of line with numbers I’ve seen for “feature” backs. The more carries, the more “hit and miss” there’s going to be. McDowell gets lots of carries early, before the defense has been worn down and/or seen many pass plays or formations.

In addition, we know Rod has been dinged up with a concussion and sprained ankle in recent weeks.

I am a bit surprised at D.J. Howard’s numbers. Howard has also spent time recovering from an injury, in his case prior to the Georgia game, and as a result started slowly against Georgia and has not fully recovered, at least in this metric.

Grading the Offensive Line and Backs

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It’s important to understand that the information provided below is my interpretation of performance during the Georgia game. As such it is limited in that I did not have “coaches film”, the benefit of knowing each and every play call/responsibility, and a variety of other factors that may influence my rating.

For these reasons, there’s a good chance these scores are too high and it may be more accurate to think of them more as a relative guide, i.e. “98.2 is better than 72.7”, and not “98.2 is close to perfect”.
Having seen the tape a couple of times and comparing the scores to my initial reaction live, I think these scores are fairly representative. After all, the offense averaged 6.1 yards per play and ended up with 467 total yards.

On the other hand, there were some clear misses on blocks, passes and a couple of times on runs. One of the issues with analysis of this type is that you may have seen something different from me and that’s fine.

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The other issue is numbers like this don’t provide any context, but rather average out what happens over the course of the game – this analysis scores every play with the same importance as every other play and provides no context for score, quarter, down and distance, etc.

For example, many fans would argue that a whiff on a block that ultimately results in Sammy Watkins being injured on the second play of the game (Chick-fil-A Bowl) is more important than a missed block on 1st and 10 in the first quarter of the Georgia game. I get that.

The goal is to provide a guide as to who is performing relative to his peers, that’s all.

Back Grades 1

This type of analysis is time consuming and tedious to some extent. It certainly gives me a better idea of what is happening during the game/season and helps me understand the team’s strengths and weaknesses better, but the down side is there is other analysis that could be done, but isn’t because of time constraints. I’ll let my readership decide if this is the type of analysis they are looking for or if they want something else.

The goal of this site is to provide information you can’t readily find in/on other sources. To that end I think this information is valuable, but it’s only truly valuable if readers are interested in it.

Inside The Numbers: D.J. Howard

D.J. Howard

D.J. Howard proved himself a capable back during his 2011 freshman campaign. Not as quick or fast as Rod McDowell, Howard has shown the ability to churn out yardage when given the opportunity.

Howard missed two complete games and parts of others with injuries in 2012 and his stats suffered, so the question is whether we see the D.J. Howard of 2011 when the season arrives or will we see some other version?

My bet is on the 2011 version returning to spell Rod McDowell and see significant playing time, at least early in the season.

This is a crossroads year for Howard’s career at Clemson. The only player in front of him on the depth chart is a senior. The lightly used Zac Brooks is behind him. And then there are the freshmen arriving this summer.

If passed on the depth chart, Howard could be looking at a career as a backup.

Will Howard be able to hold off Brooks and the freshmen and solidify second spot in the rotation or will one or more pass Howard by once they get their feet underneath themselves and used to college ball?

How I Got There
I estimated Howard’s snaps based on the Ellington’s snap count from last year and the number I estimated earlier for Rod McDowell. I assumed Howard’s carry per snap, yards per carry and touchdown ratios would remain at his career level.

2013 Estimate

Summary
It’s hard for me to sell D.J. Howard short. Even in an injury plagued season 6 of his 35 rushing attempts (17%) were for 10 yards or more and only 2 (6%) were for negative yardage.

Howard won’t win any awards for flash and probably won’t be the lead on Sports Center, but he is a solid, stable backup that can provide a change of pace.