May 21, 2013

Super Regional Thoughts and Prognostications (Part 2)

June 9, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Part 2 of our look at the College Baseball Super Regionals

Charlottesville, VA
UC Irvine (42-16) at No. 1 Virginia (52-9)
Virginia came into the tournament as the only team that met all 5 of our criteria for winning the championship. Nothing has changed.
Winner: Virginia

Santa Clara, CA
Dallas Baptist (42-18) at California (35-21)
I called the Cal upset but who saw Dallas Baptist coming? No one.
Winner: California
 
Tallahassee, FL
Texas A&M (46-19) at No. 5 Florida St. (45-17)
Toughest call of the 8. I’ll go out on a limb and say Texas A&M.
Winner: Texas A&M

Columbia, SC
Connecticut (45-18-1) at No. 4 South Carolina (48-14)
Connecticut is tough and proved they could win on the road, but winning in Columbia is tough.
Winner: South Carolina

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Tigers let one (?) slip away

June 6, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Entering the bottom of the sixth Sunday evening Clemson held a 4-1 lead on Connecticut and it looked like the Tigers were headed to a Super Regional.  Looks can be deceiving and the Tigers ended up losing 7-6 in the bottom of the 9th as one got away from the Tigers.  Hopefully it was just one.

Going into Monday’s game one has to wonder if Connecticut is brimming with confidence while the pressure shifts to the Tigers.  After all, Clemson is supposed to win in Clemson.  Connecticut is supposed to lose.  Of course, the same was true for Sunday and for 5 and a half innings it looked like that is what was going to happen.  But it didn’t.  Connecticut rallied.  Clemson rallied.  Connecticut got the last at bat and the last run and this one slipped away.  Was it just one game the Tigers lost as Jack Leggett suggested in the post game?

Connecticut celebrated, while the Tigers grumbled about a non-called strike that would have sent the game into extra innings.  Two teams focused on totally different things.

Can the Tigers refocus?  62 games and it comes down to 1.  Win and move on.  Lose and it’s another season of what could have been. 

I’ve been one to suggest that the “streak” has to end sometime.  Was tonight the night, or was it just a bump in the road?

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Early look at the Clemson Regional

May 31, 2011 by Leave a Comment

My initial thoughts are that this regional may be tougher than it looks.  For example, using the May 22 statistics (except for records and SoS) Coastal has better fielding and ERA numbers than Clemson, Sacred Heart is in the top 20 in batting average and Connecticut is in the top 12 in ERA.  Alas, the strength of schedule strongly favors Clemson and all these numbers need to be adjusted accordingly as Clemson sits at #9 SoS, while none of the others are higher than 109.  Big edge Clemson.

Team Conference W-L Fielding ERA Batting Slugging
Clemson ACC 41-18 83 23 5 21
Connecticut Big East 41-17-1 165 12 27 62
Coastal Carolina Big South 41-18 57 16 159 58
Sacred Heart Northeast 34-21 95 121 19 132

Yet, I look at Coastal and see that they have a good fielding team and a good pitching staff and wonder what the matchup will be in game 2 (assuming both win the openers, which is certainly not a given).  I am one who thinks Clemson’s pitching staff is held together by baling wire and duct tape and that Dan Pepicelli has done a remarkable job getting what he has out of the Tigers on the mound over the last two years.

In the end, I think the Tigers take it, but don’t let the names on the opposing jerseys fool you.

Coming tomorrow, predictions on all 16 regionals.

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Final Four

March 28, 2011 by Leave a Comment

One thing for sure – this years final four has blown my formula all to bits. Only two of the four teams would typically be of Final Four quality. Perhaps this is the beginning of the “new” final four in the 68 team era (however long that lasts). The formula says Kentucky over Connecticut, Butler over VCU and then Kentucky over Butler in the Championship.

The formula hasn’t been very accurate this year, but could save some face with an efficient Kentucky offense and sweep since the team that wins the championship typically has an OE in the top 5.

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Butler Horizon 27-9 32 59 22
Connecticut Big East 30-9 11 28 8
Kentucky SEC 29-8 7 20 3
VCU CAA 28-11 29 88 30
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Updated Final Four and National Championship Contenders

March 21, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Technically there are 7 teams that meet our criteria for making it to the Final Four, with an eighth on the outside looking in.  Connecticut sneaks in here, though I’m not quite sure how (defense in first round is a good guess though).

Final Four Contenders

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Connecticut Big East 28-9 12 27 10
Duke ACC 32-4 4 2 4
Kansas Big 12 34-2 5 9 1
Kentucky SEC 27-8 7 24 7
North Carolina ACC 28-7 39 8 5
Ohio State Big 10 34-2 1 6 2
San Diego State Mountain West 34-2 25 2 3

On the wrong side of the formula as of this post is Brigham Young.  The Cougars have an opportunity to meet criteria in their Thursday meeting with Florida.

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
BYU Mountain West 32-4 8 31 6

The problem is in the Southeast Region. Of the four teams left there, Butler, Wisconsin, BYU and Florida, none meet the criteria though BYU is tantalizingly close and certainly could get there with a solid performance against Florida.

The championship contenders remain the same some slight adjustment in numbers.

Title Contenders

Team Conference W-L Off Efficiency Def Efficiency RPI
Duke ACC 32-4 4 2 4
Kansas Big 12 34-2 5 9 1
Ohio State Big 10 34-2 1 6 2
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