May 21, 2013

Starting in Plus Territory – Surprising Numbers for the Prolific Morris Offense

Fifteen times Clemson started drives in opponent’s territory and came up with 0 points in 2011. No touchdown. No field goal. Nothing. 15 times. Once per game on average. That’s a lot. 

It’s one of the biggest differences between Clemson and their opponents last year. When taking over in plus territory opponents scored touchdowns 61% of the time and field goals 17% of the time, meaning opponents scored in some fashion 78% of the time in this situation.

Chad Morris (greenvilleonline.com)

 Contrast that with Clemson, which scored touchdowns 37% of the time and kicked field goals 20% of the time for a total of 57% scoring.

On some level it’s hard to fathom Chad Morris’ offense not being successful in these situations. The first question is why. Does the play calling change? Is Morris more conservative? Is it a problem with the offensive line?

I don’t know the answers to those questions.

What I do know is that these numbers need to improve in 2012 for Clemson to be successful.

Compare the ratios below between Clemson and its 2011 opponents. Clemson’s TD rate improved only 10% when starting in the opponent’s territory. When the opponent started in Clemson’s territory the touchdown rate almost tripled.

PPP

The other angle on this is how important it is to not give up the ball in your own territory, be it by turnover or getting pinned and punting. However, opponents only started 18 drives in Clemson territory, so the numbers suggest two things:

    • The Clemson offense needs to improve the rate of scoring when they take over in plus territory. 
    • The Clemson defense needs to do a better job of stopping these drives, as they averaged giving up 4.78 points per drive when the opponent began in plus territory vs. 1.70 drives per game when the drive began in minus territory.

This will be an interesting trend to watch over the course of the 2012 season, to see if there is any difference in the Morris offense from year 1 to year 2, and to see the difference between Kevin Steele’s defense and Brent Venables defense.

Analyzing Clemson’s 2012 Linebacker Experience

Linebacker is a position where the Tigers return all experience of note, losing only career third teamer Daniel Andrews, former walk-on Steve Demaras and Colton Walls before he played a down.

Consistency and tackling have been the bugaboos for this group prior to 2011, but with the infusion of Stephone Anthony and Tony Steward the trend is pointing upward.


Linebacker Experience

While Steward is recovering from injury and mired on the depth chart, Anthony came out of the spring as the starter in the middle.

Quandon Christian, Corico Hawkins and Tig Willard are all experienced linebackers and true freshman Travis Blanks is currently listed with this group as the Nickel Back.

Barring injuries the success or failure of this group won’t be based on experience as 3 at these positions have 827 snaps or more. Anthony’s 292 snaps equate to about 4 games, but he appeared solid, grounded and has star potential.

One of the more interesting story lines of the season will be how this group plays and performs with the change from Kevin Steele to Brent Venables.

Thoughts from the Spring Game

Courtesy OrangeandWhite.com

There’s nothing new or earth shattering here, you’ve probably read similar reviews by now, but that won’t stop me from adding my two cents.  Yeah, it was the spring game and the team was split, but that doesn’t mean observations can’t be made.

Courtesty OrangeandWhite.com

  • Tajh Boyd was unimpressive and inconsistent.  As Tajh goes so goes the Clemson offense.  Boyd made huge strides last year and needs to keep that momentum going in 2012.  He’s a junior on paper, but somewhere in the back of my mind “sophomore slump” (it is his second year as a starter) lurks.
  • Mike Bellamy had his moments, but once again fumbled.  Still there’s no denying the talent and home run ability Bellamy provides.  I love D.J. Howard and Zac Brooks is going to be a player, but the Tigers need Bellamy to contribute.  I was criticized for saying the same thing last year, but to me it’s painfully obvious.  Oh, by the way, Bellamy averaged 6.9 yards per carry on the day.
  • Brandon Ford is no Dewayne Allen, but he’ll be just fine and perhaps an All ACC Candidate.
  • Is there a better group of WRs in the nation?  Amazing how Jeff Scott has gone from an idiot to a savant in two short years.  One word:  Talent.  I’ll be interested to see the position rankings when the preseason mags hit the street.  If the Clemson WRs aren’t in the top 3 in the nation, it’s a sham.
  • The OL is a work in progress as it seems it is every year.  The difference is the young guys have talent.  It may take some time to grow them, but there is hope.  Injuries along the OL are always a concern and they happen every year, so developing backups is imperative.  The backups from last year saw precious little playing time and Clemson will pay for that early.
  • The DL acquitted themselves fairly well, but…they were going against an average OL that was split between teams.  Still concerned here, especially with depth.
  • The linebackers looked much improved.  Whether it’s Venables, his simplified scheme or simply maturity (or a combination) it was nice to see the LBs factor into many plays.
  • The DBs had to play against the best receivers they will see all year and that led to some tough results.  Travis Blanks has a future ahead of him, if for no other reason than he tackled well, something that has been missing over recent years for Clemson.
  • Speaking of tackling, the defense as a whole did a much better job in wrapping up and form tackling.  The Venables effect?  Who knows what will happen in truly live situations, but it was encouraging.
  • Bradley Pinion was as advertised.  Let’s hope it continues when the lights are shining bright.
  • Chandler Catanzaro has had a great spring by all accounts and I don’t really fault him for missing two 50 yarders at the end of the game before winning it with a 45 yarder.  However, it leaves a lingering concern about what tends to happen in the clutch.