March 18, 2019

Fun with Point Spreads

Below are the straight up winning % and % against the spread for favored teams from 2011-2013, FBS vs. FBS only, including Bowl Games.

The straight up column contains 2,105 games – 11 “Pick ’em” games were excluded because there was no “favorite”.  The games that ended as a “Push” are not included in the “Cover % by Spread” table.

Going by spread, the biggest upset of the last 3 years was Lousiana-Monroe’s upset of Arkansas in week 2 of the 2012 season when the Warhawks were 30 point underdogs.

Biggest cover? Florida State beat Idaho 80-14 last season to cover a 59 point spread.

The most frequent spread over the last 3 years? No surprise – 3 points – as it showed up in 133 games (6.3%).

There are some strange anomalies in the data, such as 11 point favorites win 64.5% of the time and cover only 48.4% of the time, but 11.5 point favorites are 18-0 and cover two-thirds of the time.

There’s also a weird little thing between 31.5 and 32.5 spreads where the teams are 23-0 straight up (expected) and 18-5 ATS (not so expected) which is very dissimilar to the spreads immediately preceding (3-7 ATS) and after (0-3).

 

Spread 1thru14Spread 145thru28Spread285thru42Spread425Plus

 

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