July 31, 2014

Inside The Numbers: The “9″ Wide Receiver – Mike Williams & Demarre Kitt

Mike WilliamsThe numbers say Mike Williams is an inch shorter and 7 pounds lighter than Martavis Bryant, but Williams looks and plays like a much more powerful receiver than Bryant’s spindly frame allowed.

Williams exceeded my expectations as a freshman and stepping into the “9” slot previously occupied by Bryant will afford Williams more opportunities to catch the ball downfield in 2014.

It’s difficult to realistically expect Williams to match Bryant’s per reception average from 2013 (19.7), but when you consider Williams averaged 15.8 per on 20 catches as a true freshman with a similar touchdown rate (16.7% for Bryant and 15% for Williams) it’s not too difficult to project solid numbers from Williams in 2014.

Williams averaged a catch every 20.2 snaps and that number and the percentage of targets caught (58.8%) need to improve to meet the expectations below (Bryant averaged a catch every 13.8 snaps and 62.7% of targets were complete in 2013).

Williams blossoms in his sophomore season and matches Bryant’s receptions, if not yardage and touchdowns.

Breakout Season: 50 receptions, 925 yards, 8 TDs

Bust: 30 receptions, 480 yards, 3 TD

2014 Outlook: 42 receptions, 777 yards, 6 TDs

Demarre Kitt steps into a good situation, one where he can gain experience and learn from Williams while not feeling all of the pressure to produce spectacular plays right out of the box.

With only two players listed at the position coming out of the spring you have to believe that Kitt is in line for a fair amount of playing time in relief of Williams.  This has historically been a position that stretches the field with longer routes, which typically means more snaps for 2nd teamers.

Kitt’s freshmen numbers will be similar to Williams’ initial season assuming he sees a similar number of snaps (404).

Breakout Season: 30 receptions, 474 yards, 5 TDs

Bust: 13 receptions, 154 yards, 1 TD

2014 Outlook: 19 receptions, 302 yards, 3 TDs

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