September 3, 2015

Numerical View of CFB + Turnover Report

We are now about 30% (based on the number of games) into the college football season and have a fairly representative sample size for the statistics and charts below.

An interesting move this week as the “Winning Team Covers” stat took a nose dive. In 2011 over 75% of the times a team won it covered the spread and that trend continued within a point or two into the first several weeks of 2012. This week it took a nose dive to just under 70%.


2012 Summary5
The other drop we often see as conference play begins is a drop in the “Home Team Wins” category. For the most part the cupcakes have been feasted upon and the home vs. away stat winning stat becomes much closer for the rest of the season.

The two stats that continue to amaze me (in relation to 2011) are penalties and turnovers. There was a slight uptick in teams with less penalty yards winning in week 5, but the number is still well below 50% and almost 9 percentage points behind 2011s number. Turnovers are by far the most changed category from last year.

Turnovers have been much more important in 2012 than in 2011 in terms of winning and losing. I have no idea why that is, but at this point it’s hard to imagine this stat reverting back to the 2011 number over the course of the season. With that in mind, I thought it would be a great time to do our “Turnover Report”, which shows the winning percentage for the number of turnovers a team has (independent of any other stats). Notice the precipitous drop when a team goes from 1 turnover to 2. That’s the point your odds of winning drop below 50%.

Turnover Report12

So when your team takes the field today, don’t be disturbed by the early turnover – be disturbed by the second turnover that happens later in the game – your odds of winning just plummeted.

Clemson Baseball

Clemson head coach Jack Leggett, left, chats with pitching coach Dan Pepicelli  during a timeout in their baseball game against North Carolina on Sunday in Clemson.


Mark Crammer Independent Mail

Final 2015 Clemson Baseball Metrics

Pitching Batting

Leggett

Updated Baseball Metrics – 59 Games

Pitching Batting

Crownover 2

Second Look: Matthew Crownover’s Amazing Numbers

Yesterday, Clemson Baseball put out a nice graphic that included metrics compiled by junior left-hander and ACC pitcher of the year Matthew Crownover.  While the graphic was eye catching and paid ample tribute to the season Crownover is having, my mind works in a different way.  What do those (and other) stats really mean on […]

Zack Erwin

Crownover and Erwin

The graph below shows the pitching game scores for each of the 14 starts in 2015 by Matthew Crownover and Zack Erwin.  First thing I notice is the wild fluctuations within Erwin’s season, with game scores ranging from between 20 and 75.  He’s had three streaks of back to back solid outings, his most recent […]

Weston Wilson

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 44 Games

Batting Pitching

Clate Schmidt

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 41 Games

Pitching Batting

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: