Besides the obvious – points scored – there are 6 stats that correlate to a 70% or better chance at winning. Some you would expect, some you wouldn’t, but the big one that is NOT on the list below is turnovers.
I explained a while back that while turnovers are important, they are far down the list of stats you need to be better at than your opponent to win the game. For example, have a lower yard per pass attempt average than your opponent and you have only a 21.18% chance of winning the game. Approximately 2 in 10. Lose the turnover battle and you still have a 43.20% chance of winning – more than double the odds of winning when you have a lower yard per pass attempt average.
The other note I want to make is that these are not solely focused on offense. Obviously, the better your defense the less likely the chance an opponent is going to average more yards rushing or more yards per pass attempt.
Finally, headed into the 2012 season this appears to be a mixed bag for Clemson. We all know what the Clemson offense can do, averging 7.53 yards per pass in 2011. On the flip side, the Clemson defense gave up 7.30 yards per pass in 2011 and the Clemson Tigers aren’t very deep in the secondary, so that’s definitely something to keep an eye on.