I’ve identified 5 teams that have the chance to win the title in Omaha next month, but one stands out from the rest and is Seldom Used Reserve’s pick as the likely champion headed into the 2012 tournament.
The Florida Gators have been on our weekly radar since we began tracking the 2012 season and have to be odds on favorite to win the title. Fielding, pitching and slugging are all championship level and the batting isn’t that far off the mark. All this was done against the 11th toughest schedule in the nation and all this leads me to proclaim Florida our pick to win in Omaha.
Another SEC team comes in 2nd in our seeds of likely champions. If LSU had a little more pitching they could certainly win it all. The chances are slim that the ERA will move into range and given the fact that only one of the last 10 champions have had a worse ERA than LSUs current number leads me to believe that the Tigers will fall short.
| Team | Record | Fielding | ERA | Batting | Slugging | SoS |
| Florida | 42-18 | 16 | 10 | 118 | 14 | 11 |
| LSU | 43-16 | 4 | 37 | 43 | 62 | 45 |
| Rice | 40-17 | 24 | 9 | 104 | 82 | 56 |
| Baylor | 44-14 | 31 | 24 | 10 | 25 | 25 |
| UCLA | 42-14 | 28 | 39 | 14 | 81 | 1 |
Rice comes in third in our seeding and while the Owls fielding and batting can be improved, their SoS is out of range as no national champion in the last 10 years has had a SoS higher than 49.
Baylor is our 4th seed and would meet Rice in the Super if they both make it, but the Bears are a tad short on fielding and pitching. It’ll be interesting to see what happens in the Waco Regional to see if the Bears can make a move in the fielding department.
Our 5th and final seed is UCLA. I believe this is a weak #2 national seed. Historically known for their pitching, this is a team that is 39th in ERA and 31st in fielding. Neither of those is going to get it done. Certainly, the Bruins can win their Regional and even the Super, but their chances of winning in Omaha with those numbers are not good.
The last 10 National Champions
| Year | Team | Fielding | ERA | Batting | Slugging | SoS |
| 2002 | Texas | 5 | 2 | 99 | 65 | 9 |
| 2003 | Rice | 2 | 2 | 41 | 103 | 15 |
| 2004 | Cal State – Fullerton | 17 | 22 | 9 | 56 | 3 |
| 2005 | Texas | 3 | 4 | 80 | 74 | 17 |
| 2006 | Oregon State | 8 | 14 | 85 | 95 | 18 |
| 2007 | Oregon State | 2 | 11 | 162 | 129 | 25 |
| 2008 | Fresno State | 52 | 56 | 125 | 102 | 49 |
| 2009 | LSU | 16 | 9 | 78 | 34 | 33 |
| 2010 | South Carolina | 13 | 7 | 173 | 81 | 39 |
| 2011 | South Carolina | 35 | 5 | 81 | 57 | 18 |
