September 4, 2015

Successful vs. Non-Successful Plays Part III: Receiving

We continue our series on “Successful” plays. You can find Part I and Part II in previous posts and Part I includes the definition of a successful play, which I originally found on Smart Football.

There aren’t that many surprises in the numbers below.  Jaron Brown leads the pack in this category, too, at least of the receivers that play regularly.  Adam Humphries played intermittently, but his numbers are surprisingly high considering his tiny per catch average.

Two other things of note:

  1. I’m not saying Brandon Ford is a Dwayne Allen clone, but I am saying he has shown that he is more than a typical, big, lumbering tight end, but more of a hybrid TE/WR – a tight end with wide receiver skills (much like Allen) and if Allen leaves early for the NFL, as many suspect, all is not lost at the tight end position.
  2. One thing missing from the Morris offense is the running back as a receiving threat.  Think C.J. Spiller on the wheel route.  Perhaps it’s the skill set of the running backs currently on the roster, but these numbers seem ridiculously low.  Combining Ellington, Bellamy, Howard and McDowell you come up with 8 successful plays out of 48 times targeted – 16.67%.
Name Targeted Successful % Successful
Allen 85 43 50.59
Bellamy 6 1 16.67
Boyd 1 0 0.00
Brown, J. 44 27 61.36
Bryant 14 6 42.86
Cooper 3 1 33.33
Craig 3 2 66.67
Diehl 1 0 0.00
Ellington 35 7 20.00
Ford 19 11 57.89
Hopkins 97 57 58.76
Howard 4 0 0.00
Humphries 16 13 81.25
Jones, M. 3 0 0.00
McDowell 3 0 0.00
McNeal 1 1 100.00
Peake 8 4 50.00
Thomas, B. 1 0 0.00
Watkins 114 67 58.77
None 10 0 0.00
Interceptions 10 0 0.00
Totals  478 240 50.21


The numbers above look at successful plays as a percentage of times targeted.  Below we look at a select group of receivers and how successful they are once the ball is caught.  Again, it’s no surprise that Jaron Brown leads this group.  The surprise to me was DeAndre Hopkins coming in at 92%.  This reinforces that Hopkins is the safety net and “possession” receiver while Sammy Watkins is not only the home run threat, but also the guy they tend to throw the ball to at or near the line of scrimmage and let him use his athleticism.

Name Receptions Successful % Successful
Allen 48 43 89.58
Brown, J. 29 27 93.10
Hopkins 62 57 91.94
Watkins 77 67 87.01

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