January 21, 2019

Early 2016 Win Probabilities for Every Clemson Game

The probabilities below are based on an algorithm developed over the last 5 college football seasons and 3,580 games.

The algorithm takes into account the typical metrics associated with football, plus some that are lesser recognized but correlate highly to determining winners and losers of college football games.

It’s important to understand that giving a probability is different than predicting a winner/loser.  Specifically, the probability below estimates the metrics that will result in a game and then compares those results to the results of the 3,580 games and gives a probability of Clemson winning the game assuming the actual metrics meet the expected metrics.

For example, for the Auburn game teams with Clemson’s expected metrics won 59.6% of the time over those 3,580 games.

Past performance does not necessarily predict future performance.

Early 2016 WP Clemson

The algorithm results for the 2015 season were encouraging. Teams that were given a 70.0% or higher probability of winning won 86.2% of the time over the season, including 22-0 when a team was given a 90% or higher probability of winning.

The Tigers have 5 games in the 50-60% range, which could be considered the most dangerous level (relative to all probabilities over 50%).  Over 130 games in 2015, teams in this range won 56.2% of the time.

The algorithm may be tweaked prior to the 2016 season resulting in a different win probability for the Auburn game and the win probability for all other games will change based on results of 2016 games as the season progresses.

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