Last week we looked at the NCAA’s official Red Zone Efficiency Statistics and how completely absurd the method used to rank teams are. What other positive statistic would have a 1-11 team ranked 2nd nationally?
We gave you a different way to rank these teams (by points per red zone possession) that’s more logical and descriptive of a team’s success or failure in that area of the field.
So, now that we know which teams are the most effective once they get into the red zone lets take a look and see which teams score the most points from red zone possessions and what that means for their chances of winning. After all, Memphis proved that a high percentage of scores on red zone possessions really means little. What matters is getting into the red zone 5 or more times a game and scoring a high percentage of touchdowns on those possessions.
|Team||G||Drives||Drives/G||Points||% TD||% FG||Won||Loss||RZPPG|
Notice the teams at the top of this list. Wisconsin, TCU, Stanford, Boise State, Tulsa and Nevada. Combined they were 71-8 (89.9%). Also, 2 of the 8 losses (Wisconsin to TCU and Boise State to Nevada) occurred to other teams in the top 6. Excluding these games means that when a top 6 team played a team outside of the top 6 the record was 69-6 (92.0%).
The number of points scored in the red zone has the highest correlation to winning of any statistic we have found. The top 10 teams have a combined record of 109-24 (82.0%). The elite teams in college football will average around 25 points (or more) a game from red zone possessions.
Only one of these 10 teams scored touchdowns at a rate lower than 60% and only one kicked FGs at a rate higher than 20% of the time.
The two teams with the worst records also had horrendous defenses (East Carolina ranked dead last in the nation in total defense and Texas Tech was 114th).