April 17, 2014

Figure The Odds – Final Numbers for 2013 Season

WP 3.1.1

Below are the final numbers of the “Figure The Odds” series for the 2013 season. While the numbers may not look impressive on the surface, realize that within these numbers the model managed to go 20-14 straight up and 17-17 against the spread in one of the craziest, most upset filled bowl seasons in recent memory.

WP6

During the off season I’ll continue to add to the database (currently 1,879 games) and hit the ground running in week 1 of 2014.

(The numbers above include a record of 2-4 straight up and 4-2 ATS in the first week of December).

Figure The Odds – Version 1.4

WP5

With the completion of last night’s games the model’s record now stands at 19-9 straight up and 13-15 against the spread.  I’ve noticed a potential issue with the Cover Probability portion of the algorithm (hence the .464 record) that will probably need to be addressed.  I’m not exactly positive how to best accomplish that, but for now we’ll plow ahead.

As a reminder, these probabilities are based on the results of 1,869 college football games from 2011 to 2013.

WP5

An important distinction here – I’m not predicting what will happen in these games – I’m saying that given the data that I have teams similar to Alabama have won 87.5% of the time since 2011.

To me this is a logical way to look at things. I can’t predict the future, but I do know what’s happened in the past.

Think of these less as predictions and more as a look at history of similar games.

 

Figure The Odds – Version 1.3

Metrics

The model picked up a little steam over the weekend and the record now stands at 13-7 straight up and 11-9 against the spread.

As a reminder, these probabilities are based on the results of 1,869 college football games from 2011 to 2013.

WP4

An important distinction here – I’m not predicting what will happen in these games – I’m saying that given the data that I have teams similar to Oregon have won 88.0% of the time since 2011.

To me this is a logical way to look at things. I can’t predict the future, but I do know what’s happened in the past.

Think of these less as predictions and more as a look at history of similar games.

Figure The Odds – Version 1.2

Random Numbers

Through 12 games we are 6-6 straight up and 6-6 against the spread. As a reminder, these probabilities are based on the results of 1,869 college football games from 2011 to 2013.

WP 3.1.1

An important distinction here – I’m not predicting what will happen in these games – I’m saying that given the data that I have teams similar to Notre Dame have won 88.0% of the time since 2011.

To me this is a logical way to look at things. I can’t predict the future, but I do know what’s happened in the past.

Think of these less as predictions and more as a look at history of similar games.

Figure The Odds – Version 1.1

Random Numbers

After going 4-2 against the spread in my debut, here’s the first wave of bowl games. These probabilities are based on the results of 1,869 college football games from 2011 to 2013.

WP2

An important distinction here – I’m not predicting what will happen in these games – I’m saying that given the data that I have teams similar to East Carolina have won 88.0% of the time since 2011.

To me this is a logical way to look at things. I can’t predict the future, but I do know what’s happened in the past.

Think of these less as predictions and more as a look at history of similar games.

Figure The Odds

Random Numbers

The probabilities below are based on research of 1,794 college football games between 2011 and 2013 using information that I have found particularly predictive of winning and, to a lesser extent, covering the spread (or not).  In general, I believe many models attempt to take too many factors into consideration.  Distinguishing between the signal and the noise is important.

While the data for the larger spreads is much clearer, there is a larger sample size for the smaller spreads which makes me more confident, in general, in those numbers (though I am positive Florida State beats Duke).

WP

An important distinction here – I’m not predicting what will happen in these games.  I have no idea if the Seminoles will turn the ball over 5 times or Jameis Winston gets hurt in the first series.  What I’m saying is given the data that I have teams with similar attirbutes and facing a similar opponent as Florida State have won 96.2% of the time since 2011.

To me this is a logical way to look at things.  It’s easy to say Baylor should beat Texas.  But what effect will the freezing rain forecast for Waco Saturday have on these teams?  No one knows.  But I do know what’s happened in the past.

So think of these less as predictions and more as a look at history of similar games.

Defensive Efficiency Ratings Week 12

VB

Georgia Tech comes in a surprising 12th in defensive efficiency, while the Tigers are at 31. We’ll find out in a few hours whether the Jackets ranking is more competition or talent related.

As mentioned in my weekly piece at orangeandwhite.com, third downs on both sides of the ball are likely to be a key.

Offensive Efficiency Week 9

Rplot01

The Tigers move to 18th overall, 5th in tempo and 56th in efficiency after churning out 540 yards on 98 plays against Maryland.

Virginia is not far behind in tempo, but is near the bottom of the FBS in efficiency (4.57 yards per play).

Offensive Efficiency Through Week 8

Random Numbers

An interesting note here, and perhaps a comment on the state of Clemson’s offense, is that Maryland actually has a significantly higher yards per play average than the Tigers.

Of course, much of that was before the injury bug hit, so the Maryland offense we see on Saturday, probably shows little resemblance to that of the first 8 weeks.

Defensive Efficiency – Week 7

Vic Beasly

Much like with the offensive efficiency numbers posted yesterday, Florida State is higher ranked in this category, but on average the Clemson defense has faced a slightly tougher schedule.

The offenses Clemson has faced have an average ranking of 68.2, while those the Seminoles have face average out at 72.5.