November 27, 2015

SUR Algorithm Picks – Week 13

Last week was the worst of the season for the algorithm, but I’m determined to stick it out for the season.  That said, if your team is assigned a 70% probability or more of winning you’re in good shape (85.4% winners).

Results and week 13 picks are below.

SUR Results 13 2015SUR Algo 13 2015

Nic’s Picks – Week 13

Editor’s note: Nic Mills is now 79-24 (77%) on the season in ACC picks. It’s Rivalry Week and this weeks scheudle includes  4 ACC-SEC matchups.

Miami (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3) – The Hurricanes looks to win number 8 on the season, their interim has done quite the job with the ‘Canes, going 3-1 so far.  Pittsburgh has been a pleasant surprise this season so far especially considering they lost their star running back in week 1.  Miami is able to work their magic again this week and improve to 8-4.  Miami 24 – Pittsburgh 20

Georgia (8-3) @ Georgia Tech (3-8) – Can the Yellow Jackets pull off the upset two years in a row?  I think it will be interesting but this is the one ACC-SEC matchup that goes to the SEC this year.  Georgia 27 – Georgia Tech 23

Louisville (6-5) @ Kentucky (5-6) – The Wildcats must win this game to get to 6-6 on the season, the Cards have already wrapped up bowl eligibility but now they look to continue in state supremacy.  It will be a good game but in the end these are two teams going in opposite directions. Yes Louisville lost to a good Pitt team last week and Kentucky beat their cream puff but Louisville is the better team that is still playing better overall.  Louisville 31 – Kentucky 20

Clemson (11-0) @ South Carolina (3-8) – Do I really  need to write anything here? I mean come on, South Carolina is coming off of a loss to The Citadel! But this is a new week and South Carolina is for sure playing their last game of the 2015 season no matter what happens.  Knocking off Clemson would make their off season taste a little less bitter.  The Gamecocks are sure to draw up every single trick play in the book and play as good as they have all season, but those only help so much, if you need evidence just go watch the 2012 Clemson at Florida State game.  So after they have used up all those trickeries and the emotion has died off a little bit we can get down to good on good football and Clemson will cruise easily, supposing the turnover bug doesn’t hit at inopportune times.  Clemson 42 – South Carolina 17

Virginia Tech (5-6) @ Virginia (4-7) – I would like to pick VT in this game, I would like for Beamer to get one last trip to a bowl game, but honestly I think that Virginia is playing better football right now, and if Virginia could pull off this win then Mike London could potentially get at least one more year in Charlottesville.  Also what better way for Virginia to send Frank Beamer into retirement than to finally beat him for the first time since 2003.  Virginia 31 – Virginia Tech 27

Boston College (3-8) @ Syracuse (3-8) – The good news for these two teams is that one of them has to get a win this week, and I think it will be the team with the better defense.  The Eagles will find a way to muster just enough offense and pull out the W, sending Scott Shaffer away on a 9 game losing streak.  Boston College 13 – Syracuse 10

Duke (6-5) @ Wake Forest (3-8) – Both of these programs are going in the same direction, it is just that one got off to a better start than the other.  Duke halfway resurrects themselves this week and gets the W.  Duke 34 – Wake Forest 21

North Carolina (10-1) @ North Carolina State (7-4) – The Wolfpack have the potential to challenge the Tar Heels this weekend, they won’t get the win but it will be a good game.  Last year the ‘Pack humiliated the Tar Heels but it is a new year and this is definitely a different Tar Heel team.  As long as they aren’t looking ahead to the ACC championship already they should be good for the win this week.  North Carolina 38 – North Carolina State 28

Florida State (9-2) @ Florida (10-1) – Finally the Gators are playing a team that can take advantage of their ineptitude on offense.  If Will Grier was still in command of the offense I would definitely be picking the Gators but Treon Harris has been less than spectacular and Florida State may have found something with Sean Maguire at QB.  Florida State 28 – Florida 20

SUR 10 Week 12

Clemson remains #1, this week unanimously.  But there was a shakeup in the top 4, with Notre Dame dropping, Oklahoma moving up and Iowa in sole possession of 4th.SUR 10 W 12 2015

Also receiving votes: Florida (4), North Carolina (4), Michigan (3)

Winning % by Turnover Margin

Clemson is 3-0 vs. FBS opponents when going -2 in turnover margin, while the rest of FBS is 19-100.

Here’s a look at winning percentage by turnover margin in 2015 for FBS vs. FBS teams.

(Mouse over data points for details)

Seldom Used Reserve Algorithm Picks for Week 12

After several good weeks the SUR algorithm, much like everyone else who picks college football games, had a mediocre week 11.  This week looks to be challenging as we diverge from the ESPN FPI in a number of instances and that hasn’t worked out too well for us to date.

SUR Results 12Algo W 12 2015

Nic’s Picks – Week 12

Nic Mills went  5-2 last week and now stands at 71-24 (74.7%) through 11 weeks of picks.  His week 12 picks are below.

Louisville (6-4) @ Pittsburgh (7-3) – The Cardinals are on a roll over the last seven games, going 6-1. This week they face a tough Pitt defense in Pittsburgh, I think with the home field advantage and good defense Pittsburgh gets the W to keep pace with North Carolina in case they slip up and lose these last two games. Pittsburgh 23 – Louisville 21

North Carolina (9-1) @ Virginia Tech (5-5) – The Tar Heels are rolling through their last 9 games. The Playoff committee still isn’t giving them the respect that a lot of people feel they deserve. They just have to keep winning, Virginia Tech needs to win either this week or next week against Virginia to get to a bowl game, and that win doesn’t come this week. North Carolina 38 – Virginia Tech 14

Syracuse (3-7) @ NC State (6-4) – The Orange hung tough with Clemson last week, maybe even had a few Tiger fans sweating but in the end it was just another game where at the end they weren’t talented enough to win no matter how good they played. The Wolf Pack had another tough test against FSU, looking like for a second they may pull the upset, this week the Wolf Pack are the home team and the better team and they get the win because of that. NC STATE 31 – Syracuse 21

Georgia Tech (3-7) @ Miami (6-4) – The Yellow Jackets have had the kind of season that makes people look forward to basketball season, the ‘Canes have had the kind of season that leads to coaches getting fired, but here they sit with the chance to finish 8-4 heading to bowl season. The Canes keep that on track this week at home against the less than Rambling Wreck. Miami 24 – Georgia Tech 20

Chattanooga (8-2) @ Florida State (8-2) – The Seminoles started Everett Golson against the Wolf Pack last week but about midway through the second quarter with FSU down 17-7 and Golson having committed several turnovers Sean Maguire was put back in for the ‘Noles, FSU went on to win 34-17. This game is merely a warmup or bye week for FSU as they get ready for Rivalry Weekend next week against the Gators. Florida State 52 – Chattanooga 10

Wake Forest (3-7) @ Clemson (10-0) – The Tigers look to cap off their first ever 8-0 ACC season, they have finished unbeaten in conference play but not since they moved to 8 conference games a season, with a win over Wake Forest. Last year on a Thursday night in Winston-Salem the Tigers led by Cole Stoudt pulled away late to win by 14 in a sloppy game. The Tigers at home this season take care of business much more comfortably and we get to celebrate Senior Day and Military Appreciation Day without too much drama. Clemson 45 – Wake Forest 14

Duke (6-4) @ Virginia (3-7) – After the way Duke looked against Kentucky Tuesday night in basketball maybe a few less Blue Devils are looking forward to basketball season and cherishing the last several football games. The Blue Devils have been struggling a little bit lately but they will be going bowling so that’s a plus. Duke 28 – Virginia 24

Boston College (3-7) @ Notre Dame (9-1) in Fenway Park – So it goes as a home game for Notre Dame but is being played in Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts. Makes complete sense, right? Oh well, wherever the game is being played doesn’t really matter because BC’s offense is simply that inept. Notre Dame 37 – Boston College 10

SUR 10 – Week 11

Interesting poll this week.  One voter left Oklahoma State off top 10 ballot. Another ranked Alabama #1. There’s a tie between Notre Dame and Iowa, not to mention 2 loss Stanford and Michigan State.

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 2.04.01 PM

Others receiving votes: Florida (5), North Carolina (3), Houston (1), TCU (1)

SUR Algo Picks for Week 11

Another 70+% overall and the 4th in 5 weeks.  84.2% on picks with a win probability at or above 70%.

SUR Results 2015 11SUR 2015 W11

Nic’s Picks – Week 11

Nic Mills had his second perfect week in the last month in week 10 and is now a solid 66-22 on the season.  Nic’s week 11 picks follow below.

Virginia Tech (4-5) @ Georgia Tech (3-6)- The Yellow Jackets have to win out to keep their bowl streak alive, they are currently tied with Georgia for the third longest active bowl streak, but it is in grave danger this season. Virginia Tech actually has the second longest and if they fall this week that would put them in have to win out mode to avoid not making a bowl in Frank Beamer’s final season in Blacksburg. At home on a Thursday night the Yellow Jackets take care of business and get the win. Georgia Tech 28 – Virginia Tech 24

Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Duke (6-3) – Which coastal team is going to shine, which defense is going to stand out? Both teams have lost consecutive games for the first time all season; the good news is that one of them has to break that streak. Pitt can still potentially win the Coastal Division if they can win out and finish with only one loss, but I don’t see that happening. At Duke the Blue Devils get the big home win that is much needed. Duke 34 – Pittsburgh 24

NC State (6-3) @ Florida State (7-2) – Since Sean Maguire started at Clemson I’m going to assume he keeps starting the rest of the season. The Wolf Pack are a continuingly improving team that has the ability to beat Florida State but I don’t think it will happen, not in Tallahassee. Florida State 38 – NC State 35

Virginia (3-6) @ Louisville (5-4) – The Cardinals just keep on winning, 5-1 now since the 0-3 start, too bad they couldn’t have found a way to beat Auburn or Houston. Virginia has won a few games that I was surprised about, like being able to pull out the win over Syracuse and Georgia Tech. This week is not one of those weeks as Louisville is now just a win away from going bowling and at home, the get it done. Louisville 24 – Virginia 20

Miami (6-3) @ North Carolina (8-1) – If Miami could pull this game out and win the other two games as well as hope one other team knocks off UNC then they could be headed to Charlotte to face Clemson a second time this season, but that is way too many if’s. In fact playing in Chapel Hill the way North Carolina has been playing lately I don’t know if they have much of a chance of winning at all. North Carolina 48 – Miami 27

Wake Forest (3-6) @ Notre Dame (8-1) – This game is not much more than a warm up for Notre Dame’s big trip to Stanford in a few weeks. Wake Forest poses no threat to Notre Dame even if they completely overlook the Demon Deacons. Notre Dame 48 – Wake Forest 13

Clemson (9-0) @ Syracuse (3-6) – The Tigers have gotten through their big boys on the schedule and so far are unscathed. If this was they Tommy Bowden era this is where Tiger country would be very concerned, because it is games like this that kept Tommy from ever winning a division title. This year the division title is already clinched and now the Tigers just have to keep winning, and hopefully they keep doing it convincingly. Clemson is 28 point favorite now and I have the Tigers covering that spread. Clemson 52 – Syracuse 14

SUR 10 Week 10

Tigers are a unanimous number 1 for the first time this season.

SUR 10 Week 10