June 28, 2017

5 Biggest ACC Games of 2017

Five biggest ACC games of 2017.

Featured image courtesy gwinndavisphotos.com

5 Biggest Non-Conference Games for ACC Teams in 2017

5 biggest non-conference games for ACC teams in 2017.

8 Plays: Linebackers

Clemson linebacker Ben Boulware (10) celebrate the fourth down stop. GWINN DAVIS / FOR POST AND COURIER

8 plays from the Clemson linebackers.

 

Previous Editions:

8 plays from Jordan Leggett

8 plays from Wayne Gallman

8 plays from the defensive backfield

8 plays from Mike Williams

CFB Trends: Part 6

Other than points, perhaps the most important metric in college football – yards per play. Out of all the metrics I track, none has a higher winning percentage than winning the yards per play advantage over your opponent – not even winning the turnover battle.  The gap has held relatively steady – starting at 1.25 in 2011 and sitting at 1.26 in 2016, though there have been some swings (2013!) along the way.

But again, year in and year out, the fact remains – more plays, more yards and especially more yards per play = winner.

Previously in Series:
CFB Trends Part 1 – Home field advantage?
CFB Trends Part 2 – Vegas knows – favorites win
CFB Trends Part 3 – You’re not imagining it – scoring is up
CFB Trends Part 4 – Everybody runs 70 plays a game
 CFB Trends Part 5 – Yards, yards and yards

CFB Trends – Part 5

Yards matter. Sure, there’s games where the team with less yards win, but it’s more likely that the team with more yards is going to win the game – which makes the stat we just looked at – plays per game – important and the one up next – yards per play – even more important.  The graph below makes the big picture clear: Teams that gain more yards than their opponents win.

Not only that, but the margin is getting larger.  In 2011 there was a 100 yard difference on average between winners and losers.  By 2016 that number had grown to 104.1.

Previously in Series:
CFB Trends Part 1 – Home field advantage?
CFB Trends Part 2 – Vegas knows – favorites win
CFB Trends Part 3 – You’re not imagining it – scoring is up
CFB Trends Part 4 – Everybody runs 70 plays a game
 

College Football Trends – Part 4

The numbers below are derived from 4,339 college football games between 2011-2016 that involved 2 FBS teams.

Remember when Chad Morris came to town and said 70 plays means Clemson wins?  Turns out he was right the vast majority of the time, but now “everybody” runs 70+ plays a game in college football.  One thing, however, has been consistent: Teams that run more plays on offense win more than than teams that run less.

Previously in Series:
CFB Trends Part 1 – Home field advantage?

CFB Trends Part 2 – Vegas knows – favorites win

CFB Trends Part 3 – You’re not imagining it – scoring is up

 

College Football Trends: Part 3

The numbers below are derived from 4,339 college football games between 2011-2016 that involved 2 FBS teams.

Does it seem like scoring is up in college football? Well it is as 2016 saw more points scored per game than any season since I began tracking in 2011. One could argue that 3.4 points per game is not that much. All the plays (coming soon in a chart), wild offenses, crazy formations and….3.4 points more per game?  That’s a 6.2% increase over 6 years.  Maybe it’s me, but 1% a year doesn’t sound as earth shattering as some would want you to believe.

On the other hand, 2016 saw a full point more per game than 2015 and the trend is definitely up and to the right on a graph.

Previously in Series:

CFB Trends Part 1 – Home field advantage?

CFB Trends Part 2 – Vegas knows – favorites win

College Football Trends – Part 2

The numbers below are derived from 4,339 college football games between 2011-2016 that involved 2 FBS teams.

Vegas generally knows what they’re doing, despite the spreads in the Fiesta Bowl and National Championship games.  If you’re team is favored, you’re likely to win that day.  The numbers below are for all point spreads and as you can imagine the bigger the spread the more likely it is that the favored team wins.

Previously in series:

CFB Trends Part 1 – Home field advantage?

College Football Trends – Part 1

The numbers below are derived from 4,339 college football games between 2011-2016 that involved 2 FBS teams.

When we think of college football, we often think of the dominant home teams and the “home field advantage”.  While it’s true that certain teams have a home field advantage, it may not be as big as believed once you take out FCS opponents, as shown in the numbers below.

Win Probabilities for the National Championship Game

Last week I was a man on an island and ended up being the lone voice of reason, picking Clemson to defeat Ohio State.

As you may have expected, this week is more of the same with ESPN, SBNation and Character34 all picking the Crimson Tide.

I can’t say that I really “fault” their computers for spitting out Alabama as the Tide has rolled through 2016 and even though my needle points towards Clemson, it’s a very slight point.

My formula likely puts more emphasis on yards than the others and also contains a healthy does of yards per play – two areas I suspect Clemson will have an advantage in, be it ever so slight.

A second consecutive nail biter in the National Championship game? Let’s rock.