August 17, 2017

#ThrowbackThursday: Andre Ellington for 68 vs. Auburn 2012

2012 – Andre Ellington lands on top of Auburn defender, spins, keeps his balance and goes for 68 yards in Clemson victory.

Featured image: Richard Shiro/Associated Press

Tigers in the NFL Stats (Preseason with video)

A look at the preseason stats for former Clemson players.

Please note that not all stats that will be tracked in regular season are tracked in preseason.

Sammy’s stats are from first game with Buffalo.

Please @ me with errors and omissions.

Each team has played one game with the exception of Dallas and Arizona (Ellington and Jaron Brown) who have played 2.


Best Teams & Coaches as Favorites

One measure of the strength of a program is if the team wins when it should win, meaning when they are favored.

Not all favorites are the same, of course.  Being a field goal favorite is not the same as being a 21 point favorite, nor is a being a home favorite always the same as being a road favorite.

In the tables below, which looks at games between FBS teams from 2011 to 2016, these distinctions are not made – the data includes all favorites, whether they were 1 point or 21 point favorites. There’s all kinds of rabbit holes you can examine in this type of exercise, but I chose to stay at the top level in this instance.

The results are generally what was expected, specifically near the top, though I admit Kansas State at the apex surprised me a bit.

When you think about the best coaches in college football the names of Snyder, Swinney, Saban, Fisher, Petersen and Meyer are among the first off the tongue.

If we look specifically at coaches (at current/last school) the order would be:

The winning percentage as a whole was 77.3%, so the cutoff was Tennessee – everyone below that is below average.

One team stands out in a negative way.  Virginia Tech has lost 18 times as a favorite in the last 6 seasons, an average of 3 times per season.  Most of that obviously, was during the waning years of the Beamer era, but the Hokies did lose twice as favorites in 2016 (substantial favorites at that) despite winning the ACC Coastal.

Returning Rusher Metrics

A look at the metrics for Clemson’s returning rushers.

Columns on right will be added this season.

SUR data to be used during Harvard symposium

I’ve always wanted to be accepted in the Ivy League and with the help of Edward Egros, a sports analytics journalist with the Fox affiliate in Dallas, I’ll finally make it. Kind of.

Over the last year, Edward and Charles South, a statistician who is passionate about sports, have been working on a study applying advanced statistical models to determine what’s the best way to forecast the outcome of games (and as an extension, how to pick games against the spread).

A few weeks ago their findings were presented for an R Users Group in Dallas, and next month they will present a poster at the New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS) at Harvard University.

The Seldom Used Reserve database contains over 4,300 college football games and is used by many visitors to this site and a large group of Reddit users to model systems for predicting college football games, as well as in research and master’s level projects.

Over the years I’ve heard from degenerate gamblers, graduate students, fantasy football players, statisticians, mathematicians and, now, a journalist who will use the data at an Ivy League institution.

Thank you to Edward and Charles for their work and including Seldom Used Reserve.

#ThrowbackThursday – The Catch

Steve Fuller finds Jerry Butler who makes “The Catch” vs. South Carolina in 1977.

Featured image courtesy:

Returning Receiver Metrics

A look at the metrics for returning receivers.

Target numbers are based on play by play data and occasionally my eyes.  Play by play does not include targets for interceptions, for example.

In the coming season I hope to include the four columns on the right.

Featured image courtesy

Composite Advanced Metrics Box from 2016

The 2016 season composite advanced metrics box score for Clemson and opponents.  The table below does not include all metrics that will be tracked for the coming season.

Time of possession does not equal 60 minutes because of shortened quarters in 2016 South Carolina State game.

Sack % = Sacks/(Passes + Sacks)

#ThrowbackThursday – Goal line stand vs. Louisville in 2014

A 73 yard pass set Louisville up at the Clemson 8 with 1:08 left on the clock and the Tigers clinging to a 23-17 lead.  The Cardinals did not score.

Kelly Bryant – By distance of pass and video of his 9 2016 passes

There’s not much to take, if anything, from Kelly Bryant’s 9 garbage time passes in 2016, but I thought I would share them any way.

And here is what those 9 passes looked like.