October 23, 2016

The Best of 5 in 59 from games 1-7

Just because it’s an off week for the Tigers, doesn’t mean you don’t get to see Clemson football. Here’s the best of our 5 in 59 series from games 1-7:

Featured image courtesy gwinndavisphotos.com

Mid-Season Report Cards & Bold Predictions – Optimistically Speaking

If Ernie Banks ever met Nic Mills he would have wanted to play a triple header.

Featured image courtesy gwinndavisphotos.com.

Vegas Confidential – The Land of Enchantment and Biting Dogs Edition

Vegas Confidential

Weekly SUR Pick’em

Weekly SUR Pick'em

The SUR crew of Matt Wilczewski, Marty Coleman and Chris Cox pick the week’s featured games against the spread and share a million star lead pipe lock. Feel free to get rich…at your own expense.

Figure the Odds: Tigers on remarkable 1 in 423,329 run

A stat that first gained notoriety last season has continued a remarkable run 7 games into the Clemson Tigers’ 2016 season.

On their historic run to last year’s national championship game Clemson won a remarkable 5 games against Football Bowl Subdivision teams when -2 in turnovers and another (Wofford) against an FCS team.

The streak began with a victory over Wake Forest in 2014 and has continued this season in wins over Louisville and North Carolina State and now stands at 8 consecutive wins against FBS opponents when the Tigers are -2 in turnovers.


Since I began tracking FBS vs. FBS games back in 2011, almost 4,000 games worth, teams -2 in turnovers have won only 180 of 907 contests – or 19.8%.

That 19.8% winning percentage means the odds of a team winning 8 times in a row when -2 in turnovers is 1 in 423,329.

This is a remarkable, once in a lifetime type streak the Tigers are on.

* Side note – if the streak were to reach 9 and the winning % stay the same at 19.8% the odds move to 1 in 2,138,028.

Thanks to @theeguy420 for his assistance in computing and verifying my calculations.

Nic’s Picks – Week 8

Nic's Picks

Week 7 Record (6-2)
Total Record (39-18)

5 in 59: N.C. State Edition

5 plays in 59 seconds (or thereabouts) from Clemson’s thrilling victory over N.C. State last Saturday.

Updated #WE2DEEP17 Infographic

An in-depth look at one of Clemson’s best recruiting classes to date…


**As always, make sure you head over to the free SUR Message Boards to discuss this and much more with fellow Tiger fans or check out our latest SUR Podcast for up to date Clemson football discussion**

Upon Further Review: NC State

Oddly enough close wins tend to be my favorite to quickly re-watch, perhaps to try and dissect what exactly went wrong throughout the game. We’ll start off with Drinkwitz’s gameplan, to dink and dunk down the field. A combination of negating the defensive line by getting Finley throwing the ball quickly, and using his nifty backfield receiving threats of Hines and Samuels. This was evident early on, as Hines gets matched up against Boulware. This is State’s quickest threat up against Clemson’s weakest LB in pass coverage, thus the result is what’s to be expected.



There have been few instances this season where a secondary “bust” has occurred. NC State draws up a nice double pass here to get behind the secondary. Perhaps a good thing that this is the only way in which receivers are able to get behind coverage. Clemson’s fortunate that this pass was underthrown.



State ran stretch plays throughout the day, allowing Dayes to use his great vision to find the correct lane. One of the first examples below, Dayes with the quick cut to find plenty of green.


I didn’t consider Ryan Finley to be a running threat on Saturday, but he was more than serviceable with his legs. The Clemson defense didn’t seem to honor him as a runner either…



A connection that has to be made…


More of the Wolfpack getting the ball out quickly to their playmakers, letting Hines break a tackle and find yards.


Would just like to take a moment to appreciate Wilkins’ vision to bounce this to the outside. What can’t this man do?…



There were several throws from Watson on Saturday into tight windows between several defenders. This was just one of them. Wow, some serious heat and trust to put it right in there for Mike Williams.


Far too predictable and slow developing call and rather mind-boggling not to utilize the jumbo package here.



Clemson brings heat quite often on third and long situations, this is just a great playcall to beat it.



Renfrow opens up this offense so much more. Watching throughout the game, this route was open for Watson whenever he desired. Playbook opens up when you’re able to gain significant yardage on first down.


State brings a stunt which creates miscommunication between Hearn and Guillermo.


Would like to see the coaching staff do away with the squib kicks. Kick coverage has been solid this season *knocks on wood*, and the squibs are only providing free yardage and a potential scoring opportunity to opposing teams.



Talk about a physical defensive line. Plays like this on McCloud may be why there wasn’t much in the horizontal run game on Saturday. Seemed like NC State’s defensive ends lined up far outside to try and force Clemson to run in between the tackles.



Jordan Leggett made tough grabs in several big situations. Difficult throw for Watson as well.



More of Dayes on stretch play. Really impressive vision to pick out and hit this cutback lane. Could the struggles against the stretch end up a blessing in disguise? It’s something that Clemson will see against Dalvin Cook in two weeks and maybe being exposed beforehand and thus putting in additional preparation for it will be of help.


My gosh, Wilkins just destroys the lineman for the field goal block.


Another tight window hit by Watson and another tough grab by Leggett.


State using Hines out of the backfield again.



Athleticism that I didn’t anticipate. Finley moves well, but Van Smith has to be able to make a play here rather than getting stuck flat-footed.


Not to complain about officiating, but the game is likely very different if Leggett isn’t called for this extremely questionable hold.



It takes some guts to go for a 4th and 1 conversion in OT, knowing that if unsuccessful the opposing team is essentially setup in field goal range for a winning opportunity. Glad the decision was made to allow Wilkins and Lawrence pave the way.



Another difficult catch by Leggett in traffic.


A terrifying moment, watching the ball sail past Watson. Taking a closer look, it does appear that this is actually Watson’s fault for taking his eye off the ball, rather than Guillermo. Fortunately Watson would soon make up for his mistake.

Watson by Distance – N.C. State

Photo: Gwinn Davis/gwinndavisphotos.com

Photo: Gwinn Davis/gwinndavisphotos.com

Deshaun Watson’s numbers against N.C. State broken down by distance of pass from line of scrimmage.