Two trends over the course of the season. One may be relevant today and the other may not.
Clemson is 0-12 when Rod Hall has an assist to turnover ratio of <=1.
When K.J. McDaniels is on the + side of the plus/minus Clemson is 12-1. When McDaniels is on the negative side the Tigers are 1-12. When McDaniels doesn’t play Clemson is 0-3.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Except this time the Tigers lose without K.J. McDaniels on the floor.
In addition, it seems that Brownell and some on the team are getting frustrated at the guard play, something I’ve been pointing out all year.
There’s been a fair amount of discussion on whether the stats below are meaningful, obtuse, or even relevant.
For example, detractors point out (just as I did) that Rod Hall can only get an assist if the player he passes the ball to actually makes a shot – and that’s not a given for Clemson this year. That point is true, just like Tajh Boyd can’t complete a pass if the receiver drops the ball.
With a little outside of the box thinking, this can be viewed as pseudo team stat and not a Rod Hall stat. However, just like with Boyd there is no official “he did his part, but the other guy screwed up” column on the stat sheet. It’s an assist or it’s not. Just like every pass Boyd throws is complete or it’s not.
The Tigers are now 13-2 when Hall has an assist to turnover ratio of >1 and 0-10 when that ratio is <=1.
The ultimate point here is that when Hall is on and getting assists (yes that means the recipient made a basket) and not turning the ball over Clemson wins.
Someone else pointed out that Milton Jennings correlation to winning seems higher than K.J. McDaniels’. It’s true that Clemson has not won (with Jennings in the lineup) without Jennings being in the + category.
However, they have lost 3 times when Jennings is +. Up until last week the Tigers hadn’t lost at all when McDaniels was + and lost every time McDaniels was minus – meaning it was a 100% correlation when it was “only” 80% with Jennings. The Tigers are now 12-1 when McDaniels is + and 1-11 when he is minus.
Plus-Minus 022113 –
I like to think of these stats as an addendum to the actual games, rather than the be all and end all of wins and losses. It’s easy to dismiss these types of observations with “just score the ball more” or “Hall can’t get an assist if we don’t make the shot”.
These observations can be used DURING the game to gauge the likelihood of Clemson winning. They are here to provide insight on what to watch for while the game is in progress. Is Hall getting the ball inside and are his passes being converted into baskets? Is Hall turning the ball over?
These type of trends can be seen developing as the game progresses and observations about what is happening when it doesn’t involve the ball going in the basket can be valuable in analyzing why a team wins or loses.
Too often we are overly critical of the missed free throw with 0.6 seconds left and forget about the 4 turnovers your point guard had over the first 39 minutes, 59.4 seconds or the 6 times the point guard got the ball inside and your team failed to convert the pass into points.
My argument would be that your team didn’t lose because of the missed free throw at 0.6, but the game was lost earlier on turnovers and missed chances.