Complete through 21 games.
March 25, 2017
I’ve corrected some minor issues that generally occur when an official scoring ruling is changed after a game is complete and believe the numbers below are as accurate as possible.
Complete through 20 games.
Clemson is averaging 1.15 runs per inning when the leadoff man gets on and only .40 runs when the leadoff man makes an out.
Since moving to the leadoff spot in game 2 of the Notre Dame series (7 games) Chase Pinder is 10 for 26 (.385) with 10 runs scored and 3 stolen bases.
Clemson has 30 multiple run innings, while their opponents have 18.
Since moving to the leadoff spot permanently (?) in the second game of the Notre Dame series, Chase Pinder is 7 for 13 (.538), with 7 runs, 3 walks, 3 doubles and 4 RBI. This is a different offense with Pinder at the top and Chris Williams protecting Beer. It’s unlikely Pinder will continue at his current .393 pace, but it’s also unlikely Beer stays at is current pace (.255). They are likely to both end up somewhere between those 2 numbers.
Nearly a third of the way through the season, the Tigers pitching staff has been remarkably consistent.
A slight crack appeared in the bullpen in game two of the Yale series as Clemson allowed 5 inherited runners to score after allowing 8 total to score in previous 16 games.
Ryley Gilliam has not made an appearance since the middle game of the South Carolina series.
Something a little different in the way of analysis for batters. A couple of the batting averages stood out to me as unusually high given the metrics I post weekly.
First, Andrew Cox is having a good year at the plate through the first 12 games as evidenced by his .296 average in spite of striking out in almost 30% of his at bats. It would be incredibly difficult for Cox to continue striking out 30% of the time and hit almost .300. Either the strike out rate needs to decrease or the batting average almost assuredly will over time.
Think about this way, in 10 at bats Cox strikes out 3 times and puts the ball in play 7 times. Therefore, for Cox to average .300 (roughly) he would need 3 hits on the 7 balls in play (a .429 average on balls in play). Not likely over the long term.
I’m not saying Cox won’t hit .296. I’m saying it’s unlikely to happen if he continues to strike out in 30% of his at bats.
Chase Pinder is another striking out often (20.8%), yet has a high average (.348). 20 at bats works better for this example, so that means Pinder is going to strike out in 4 of those at bats. Over the 16 times Pinder puts the ball in play he would need 7 hits (.438) to maintain the current average. One or the other (strike out rate or average) will change in the long term.
Robert Jolly doesn’t strike out nearly as often (12.5% of the time), but with his average at .393, there certainly almost nothing but downside over the season.
Reed Rohlman is another whose strike out rate (11.5%) is high for his batting average of .357.
Unfortunately for Clemson there’s not a lot of guys on the other side – those that are putting the ball in play, but have a lower than expected average. Jordan Greene is one, but his playing time has been limited and it’s difficult to draw conclusions at this point.
All this may not mean much against what appears to be a struggling Notre Dame team, but these are intended as longer term observations vs. something likely to happen over the weekend.