November 27, 2014

Basketball Metrics – 5 Games

Clemson hosts Winthrop men's basketball in Littlejohn

Complete through 5 Games –

Player Details 2014 52 Pt FG 2014 53 PT FG 2014 5FT 2014 5Team Pace 2014 5Team Rates 2014 5

Episode 32: Deshaun Watson update, keys to victory and predictions

PodcastGraphic300X300

Brandon Rink of orangeandwhite.com joins me to discuss  the possibility of Deshaun Watson seeing the field this Saturday, provides us his keys to a Tiger win and gives us a prediction.

We also give a “shoutout” to our “favorite” listener.  Is it you? Tune in to find out.

You can also download current and previous episodes and subscribe to the Podcast via iTunes by clicking here.

Thanks to Brandon for participating and Clemson graduate Adam Eargle for the podcast artwork and all SUR graphics.  Need a graphic artist? Check out some of Adam’s work here.

Figure The Odds: Win Probability vs. South Carolina

Random Numbers

The win probability below is based on metrics from 2,729 college football games between 2011 and week 13 of 2014 and the estimated metrics below.

In summary, the probability means that 56.4% of the time teams that have the metrics estimated for Clemson have beaten opponents with the estimated metrics for South Carolina.

Win Prob 2014 11

Also of note: If Clemson reaches 3 turnovers the win probability drops to 47.2%.

Quarterback Drive Charts – 11 Games

Clemson vs South Carolina State during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium in Clemson, S.C.

Numbers below excluded drives where both players quarterbacked on same drive. Orange line at bottom = “Average Drive” for season and purple line indicates season totals.

Cole StoudtStoudt Drives 2014 11
Deshaun WatsonWatson Drives 2014 11

Clemson Offensive Pace – 11 Games

40_Sec_PlayClock_2002301

Clemson’s offensive pace (seconds of possession per play run) through 11 games.Clemson Pace 2014 11 ChartClemson Pace 2014 11 Graph

Quarterbacks by Distance of Throw – 11 Games

Stoudt Ga State

Cole Stoudt’s numbers from the Georgia State game:
Stoudt by Distance 2014 11
Quarterbacks by Distance through 11 games:QBs by Distance 2014 11

Figure The Odds: Win Probability vs. Georgia State

Random Numbers

Coming in as a 40+ point favorite there’s little doubt that Clemson will win on Saturday.  Since 2011 40+ point favorites are 29-0 and 15-14 against the spread, but strange things happen in college football.

We know that with each turnover a team’s odds of winning is reduced.  Turnovers not only stop your team from scoring in the short term, they also reduce the number of plays and number of yards a team gains, two key ingredients to winning.

The model I use to create the probabilities below uses 2,678 past games to give probabilities for future games based on estimated metrics.

The four scenarios below show an increase of 1 turnover each and a corresponding decrease in the other metrics.  You can see how turnovers affect the win probability on the far right.

In those 2,678 games no team with the metrics in scenario 1 has lost and only 2.2% of those in scenario 2 lost.

WinProbs 2014 11

The long and short of it is that if the Tigers don’t turn the ball over they’re going to win.  Turn it over once and the odds are still highly in their favor.

Things get interesting around the 3 turnover mark, but the model I use shows Tiger fans can expect 1.5 turnovers on Saturday.

Obviously, you can’t have 1.5 turnovers, so I would expect 1 or 2 turnovers for Clemson on Saturday and that means the probability of a win is high in either case, but 15% lower if the Tigers turn the ball over twice.

In case you’re wondering, the tipping point is 5 turnovers – that’s where the probability dips below 50%.

Legend:
H/A: Home/Away
eYards: Estimated Total Yards Gained
eYPP: Estimated Yards Per Play
eTYP: Estimated Total Yard Differential from opponent
eYPPD: Estimated Yard Per Play Differential from opponent
eTO: Estimated number of turnovers
ProbW: Probability of winning based on estimated statistics

Basketball Metrics – 2 Games

Clemson hosts Winthrop men's basketball in Littlejohn 77-74 Winthrop wins

Still under development, but here are some.Player Detail 2014 21Summary 2014 2Game by Game BB 2014 22 PT 2014 23 PT 2014 2FT 2014 2

Episode 31: Watson Timetable, Improved Running Game and some Georgia State

PodcastGraphic300X300

Brandon Rink of orangeandwhite.com joins me to discuss the timetable for Deshaun Watson’s return, a slightly improved rushing attack and the disappearance of Mike Williams.

You can also download current and previous episodes and subscribe to the Podcast via iTunes by clicking here.

Thanks to Brandon for participating and Clemson graduate Adam Eargle for the podcast artwork and all SUR graphics.  Need a graphic artist? Check out some of Adam’s work here.

Receiver Detail – 10 Games

Clemson vs S.C. State football - Mike Williams

Updated through game 10.Receiver Detail 2014-10