April 30, 2016

Figure The Odds: The highest win probability for 2016 season

We work through the 2016 schedule from easiest to most difficult based on Win Probability* for Clemson. Up first, the third game of the season: South Carolina State.

Coming tomorrow: A team that gave the Tigers fits for a half.

*Win Probability based on expected metrics for each team and 3,580 college football games from 2011-2015. Win Probability algorithm is updated periodically and may change prior to the game being played.

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 40 Games

Complete through 40 games.

Batting

2016 Baseball Batting All 402016 Baseball Batting RHP 402016 Baseball Batting LHP 402016 Baseball Batting GBR 40

 

Pitching

2016 Baseball Pitching 40 All2016 Baseball Pitching RHB 402016 Baseball Pitching LHB 402016 Baseball Pitching GBR 40

Tracking Tiger Baseball – 40 games in team metrics regressing

After Clemson managed to win the first game of the Georgia Tech series Saturday afternoon I remarked that it was an important win because the Tigers used Pat Krall both on Friday and Saturday as the game continued.2016 Baseball Proj Win 40

Krall has been the Tigers one constant on the mound and I felt if the Tigers used Krall and lost, especially as the suspended game equated to Krall being used in two consecutive games, there was a chance of a sweep.

2016 Baseball Team Mets 40

Unfortunately, I was prophetic and the Tigers were blasted in the second game and beaten in game 3, with neither Clemson starting pitcher getting two outs before being removed.

Lost in the 16-1 mashing Saturday evening was the fact that Chase Pinder led off the bottom of the first with a homerun and then……nothing.  Not another run crossed the plate for Clemson.

2016 Baseball Fielding 40

While the fielding percentage nudged up this week, there were plays that weren’t made but weren’t scored as errors that effected Sunday’s outcome, specifically Jordan Greene’s indecision in the first really hurt the Tigers chances as the Jackets had 4 runs before Clemson came to the plate.  Fielding percentage is an important metric and one that I follow closely as it gives a big picture view of the defense, but sometimes it’s necessary to look deeper than a single number and that was the case this past weekend.

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 37 Games

Complete through 37 games.

Batting
2016 Baseball Batting All 372016 Baseball Batting RHP 372016 Baseball Batting LHP 372016 Baseball Batting GBR 37Pitching2016 Baseball Pitching All 372016 Baseball Pitching RHB 372016 Baseball Pitching LHB 372016 Baseball Pitching GBR 37

Podcast: Recruiting news and notes, NFL draft talk, plus much more

Time Marks/Topics:

01:18-Recruiting News and Notes
13:25-NFL Draft thoughts
24:25-Marcus Lattimore denied position by NCAA
28:20-Rashan Gary and “Clemson Dan”
31:45-Marty’s stat corner
35:27-Starting Pitching
38:33-Finances and will the ACC exist in 10 years
44:50-Biggest test for Clemson other than FSU
47:53-Boom Bus
51:00-Pizzagate at Texas
53:40-Boston College Spring Game
54:56-Coming up on SUR

You can also download and subscribe to the podcast here via iTunes.

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 36 Games

Complete through 36 games.

Batting2016 Baseball Batting All 362016 Baseball Batting RHP 362016 Baseball Batting LHP 362016 Baseball Batting GBR 36Pitching2016 Baseball Pitching All 362016 Baseball Pitching RHB 362016 Baseball Pitching LHB 362016 Baseball Pitching GBR 36

Tracking Tiger Baseball: Metrics slide back to 2015 levels

Thirty-six games into Monte Lee’s tenure the Clemson Tigers are 24-12 and 8-10 in the ACC. The Tigers also are hitting 10 points below last seasons final total, have an ERA within a small fraction of the 2015 number and are fielding at exactly the same dismal clip.

2016 Baseball Comps 36

Seth Beer’s bat has masked a lot of issues and the Tigers are slugging at a better rate, but those numbers are neutralized against a team with the talent of Louisville or Miami.

2016 Baseball Fielding 36

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s podcast the Tigers are who we thought they were. Starting pitching struggles, defense isn’t very good and the offensive lineup is feast or famine.

2016 Baseball WP 36

We knew all of this coming into the 2016 season so we shouldn’t be surprised, yet somehow we are. The expectations set by a series victory over South Carolina and fast start in ACC play is difficult to overcome, but realistically we knew that this team was going to be a work in progress.

Sometimes that progress is obvious and sometimes it’s not easy to find.

Projecting Beer

Seth Beer’s remarkable freshman season slowed a bit in Friday night’s scalding in Louisville. Held hitless for only the third time in 31 games in which he has batted, Beer nonetheless reached base in 2 of 4 plate appearances, being hit once and taking a base on balls on another.

The likelihood of Beer continuing at his torrid pace is not high. The schedule gets tougher, as we saw last night, and perhaps there will be some wall that Beer hits at some point. The second point is not as likely a culprit as the first in my mind.

Projecting Beer

Also, one must factor in the likelihood that teams pitch around Beer more often and therefore we’re likely to see more walks and hit by pitches.

Still it’s fun to project a full season of Beer, knowing there are two more to follow in a Clemson uniform.

Cardinal(s) Rule, blast Clemson 15-2

Clate Schmidt struggled from the very first batter as Corey Ray doubled and then scored on a wayward pickoff attempt almost before the National Anthem was done as Louisville (27-7, 11-5) demolished the Tigers (24-10, 8-8) 15-2.

Things got worse from there as Schmidt (5-2) was tagged for 10 hits and 5 runs (all earned) in a mere 2.1 innings, taxing an already taxed bullpen in game 1 of a 3 game set.

The bullpen didn’t fare any better as they combined to give up 10 hits and 10 earned runs in 5.2 innings of work.

Meanwhile, Louisville, sporting Major League talent on the mound, in the field and at the pate, stifled the Tigers at the plate behind the pitching of Brendan McKay (7-1). McKay gave up 2 runs on 2 hits across 7 innings, striking out 8 and walking 4.

The starting 4-7 batters in the Cardinal order, which included McKay as the DH, combined to go 11 for 18 with 6 runs scored and 9 RBI.

The Clemson pitching staff gave up 20 hits and 15 runs (all earned), while striking out 2, walking 4, hitting 5 and committing a balk.

Game 2 of the series is scheduled for Saturday at 4 p.m. in Louisville.

Clemson Baseball Metrics – 33 Games

Complete through 33 games.

Batting

2016 Baseball Batting All 332016 Baseball Batting RHP 332016 Baseball Batting LHP 332016 Baseball Batting GBR 33

Pitching2016 Baseball Pitching 332016 Baseball Pitching RHB 332016 Baseball Pitching LHB 332016 Baseball Pitching GBR 33