November 30, 2015

SUR 10 – Week 13

Clemson remains at top, with Alabama nipping at the Tigers heels.

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Others receiving votes: Baylor (1), TCU (1))

Deshaun Watson by Distance – South Carolina and Season

Complete through South Carolina.

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Winning % by turnover margin

Clemson is 4-0 when -2 in turnovers vs. FBS teams (and 1-0 vs. FCS teams).  The rest of FBS is 21-110 (16.0%).
Mouse over data points for details.

Updated: Dabo Swinney’s Record by Team and Conference

Complete through Wake Forest game.

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Clemson vs. South Carolina Win Probabilities

As I have said nearly every week this season, the numbers below would look “better” if Clemson wasn’t averaging nearly 2 turnovers per game.  The fact that the Tigers project 122 more total yards, 10 more plays and average over a yard more per play make this almost insurmountable for the Gamecocks. Except for the turnovers.

Avoid turnovers and this game is not close.

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It’s tempting to think the laws of turnovers don’t apply to the Tigers, since they are 4-0 when -2 in turnovers vs. FBS teams and the rest of FBS is 21-110 (16%), but that’s simply not true mathematically or logically.  It’s an issue Clemson needs to correct and Saturday is good time to start.

SUR Algorithm Picks – Week 13

Last week was the worst of the season for the algorithm, but I’m determined to stick it out for the season.  That said, if your team is assigned a 70% probability or more of winning you’re in good shape (85.4% winners).

Results and week 13 picks are below.

SUR Results 13 2015SUR Algo 13 2015

Third Down Defense

A total of 23 different players have been involved in stopping opponents on third downs in some fashion.

2015 11 3rd Down Stops Indi

Below is the breakdown by yards to go.

2015 11 3rd Down D by Dis

Nic’s Picks – Week 13

Editor’s note: Nic Mills is now 79-24 (77%) on the season in ACC picks. It’s Rivalry Week and this weeks scheudle includes  4 ACC-SEC matchups.

Miami (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3) – The Hurricanes looks to win number 8 on the season, their interim has done quite the job with the ‘Canes, going 3-1 so far.  Pittsburgh has been a pleasant surprise this season so far especially considering they lost their star running back in week 1.  Miami is able to work their magic again this week and improve to 8-4.  Miami 24 – Pittsburgh 20

Georgia (8-3) @ Georgia Tech (3-8) – Can the Yellow Jackets pull off the upset two years in a row?  I think it will be interesting but this is the one ACC-SEC matchup that goes to the SEC this year.  Georgia 27 – Georgia Tech 23

Louisville (6-5) @ Kentucky (5-6) – The Wildcats must win this game to get to 6-6 on the season, the Cards have already wrapped up bowl eligibility but now they look to continue in state supremacy.  It will be a good game but in the end these are two teams going in opposite directions. Yes Louisville lost to a good Pitt team last week and Kentucky beat their cream puff but Louisville is the better team that is still playing better overall.  Louisville 31 – Kentucky 20

Clemson (11-0) @ South Carolina (3-8) – Do I really  need to write anything here? I mean come on, South Carolina is coming off of a loss to The Citadel! But this is a new week and South Carolina is for sure playing their last game of the 2015 season no matter what happens.  Knocking off Clemson would make their off season taste a little less bitter.  The Gamecocks are sure to draw up every single trick play in the book and play as good as they have all season, but those only help so much, if you need evidence just go watch the 2012 Clemson at Florida State game.  So after they have used up all those trickeries and the emotion has died off a little bit we can get down to good on good football and Clemson will cruise easily, supposing the turnover bug doesn’t hit at inopportune times.  Clemson 42 – South Carolina 17

Virginia Tech (5-6) @ Virginia (4-7) – I would like to pick VT in this game, I would like for Beamer to get one last trip to a bowl game, but honestly I think that Virginia is playing better football right now, and if Virginia could pull off this win then Mike London could potentially get at least one more year in Charlottesville.  Also what better way for Virginia to send Frank Beamer into retirement than to finally beat him for the first time since 2003.  Virginia 31 – Virginia Tech 27

Boston College (3-8) @ Syracuse (3-8) – The good news for these two teams is that one of them has to get a win this week, and I think it will be the team with the better defense.  The Eagles will find a way to muster just enough offense and pull out the W, sending Scott Shaffer away on a 9 game losing streak.  Boston College 13 – Syracuse 10

Duke (6-5) @ Wake Forest (3-8) – Both of these programs are going in the same direction, it is just that one got off to a better start than the other.  Duke halfway resurrects themselves this week and gets the W.  Duke 34 – Wake Forest 21

North Carolina (10-1) @ North Carolina State (7-4) – The Wolfpack have the potential to challenge the Tar Heels this weekend, they won’t get the win but it will be a good game.  Last year the ‘Pack humiliated the Tar Heels but it is a new year and this is definitely a different Tar Heel team.  As long as they aren’t looking ahead to the ACC championship already they should be good for the win this week.  North Carolina 38 – North Carolina State 28

Florida State (9-2) @ Florida (10-1) – Finally the Gators are playing a team that can take advantage of their ineptitude on offense.  If Will Grier was still in command of the offense I would definitely be picking the Gators but Treon Harris has been less than spectacular and Florida State may have found something with Sean Maguire at QB.  Florida State 28 – Florida 20

Podcast: Clemson-Carolina

I’m joined by Brandon Rink and Brad Senkiw of to talk Clemson – South Carolina.  This week we look back at Wake, discuss red zone issues for Clemson, tour the ACC and give our score and prediction for Clemson/South Carolina.

Thanks to Brandon and Brad for their time. It’s always a great time to talk Clemson football with Stanford Brandon and Miami Brad.

You can download and subscribe via iTunes here or at the bottom of this page for iTunes or Android, play in this window or play in a new window.

Podcast artwork courtesy Eargle Design.


Rushing Metrics – 11 Games

Complete through 11 games.

Rushing metrics do not include sacks.

Successful rush:

  1. First down – 50% of yards needed for first down or touchdown.
  2. Second down – 70% of yards needed for first down or touchdown.
  3. Third and fourth down – First down or touchdown.

Explosive rushes are rushes of 12 or more yards.

2015 11 Rush Mets